The Temporary Departure of Jim Prentice

Jim Prentice has just resigned his Cabinet position as Environment Minister and has announced his intention to vacate his seat in the House of Commons by the end of the year to accept an senior executive position with a leading Canadian bank.

But if you think politics has seen the last of Jim Prentice, think again.

I would bet a large amount of my minuscule savings that Prentice, only 54 years old, will return to politics within the next decade to mount a campaign for the leadership of the Conservative Party.

This “temporary departure” strategy would be par for the course in Canadian leadership politics. John Turner, Jean Chretien, Paul Martin and Stephen Harper–each has in the past done precisely what Prentice is now doing: retreating from active political life to the comforts of corporate Canada.

When the leadership of the Conservative Party once again becomes available, Prentice will be well positioned to run a frontrunner’s campaign. Tempted by new corporate contacts, Bay Street fundraisers, organizational muscle and campaign operatives, Prentice will have a hard time resisting the siren song of politics.

True, Prentice will not have an easy ride to the prize. He will face a strong cast of potential contestants for the Conservative leadership, including perhaps Peter Mackay, Stockwell Day, Maxime Bernier, Rona Ambrose, John Baird, Tony Clement, Jim Flaherty, Peter Van Loan, Jean Charest and Bernard Lord.

But given his strong Cabinet performance and the Bay Street glow that is sure to envelop him in the years ahead, Prentice would be a leading contender in the next Conservative leadership race.

David Frum on Canadian Voter Turnout

My friend and colleague, Scott H. Payne, had the pleasure to interview David Frum.  They were talking about the state of Canadian politics, especially in relation to voter interest.  Here’s a sample, in case readers of The Politic might be interested:

Scott Payne: If you were to give an overview of your take on the current state of Canadian politics, what would it be? Do things seem good? Bad? Lively? Stagnant? Are there some interesting trends that you see when scanning Canadian political headlines? Is there a pervasive narrative that seems to — within reasons — sum up where Canadians are in regards to their political lives?

David Frum: Canada has escaped more mildly from the global recession than any other developed country. Incomes and jobs are beginning to recover. The country’s balance sheet is stronger than any of its major trading partners. Secessionist tendencies in Quebec and the West have ebbed. The country’s armed forces themselves have distinguished themselves in the first major combat operations since the Korean War. That’s a formidable record of good governance. And since the point of politics is to produce good governments, I’d say Canadian politics are doing very well.

SP: And yet despite this, in the country’s last federal election, voter turnout was the lowest in the country’s history. Do you think that election fatigue is solely to blame for Canadians’ recent disengagement from one the primary civic activities of their democracy?

DF: A hair under 60% turned out – that’s pretty good, especially in a country with such a large population of newly arrived immigrants. It will take the newcomers a little time to feel oriented and familiar, to form the kinds of connections that inspire voting…

One final thought on this.  It is quite clear that Mr. Frum is a thoughtful observer of politics, truly interested in the goings-on of our political culture.  Agree with him or not, he’s a worthwhile voice to have in the realm of punditry.

Maybe it just needs a jump-start…

Isn’t that supposed to be what this “Tour” was all about? Giving the Liberal Party a jump-start? I hate to be the one to say it, but when the patient is dead, no amount of power will get the body going again.

And really? What is it with Liberals and transportation?

Shall we review current and past events?

In what appears to be hilarious irony, The Liberal Express breaks down within the first hour of setting off on what the Liberals have been touting as the largest event a Leader of the Official Opposition has ever undertaken. Given their current polling numbers…..quite apropos.

In other transportation news, an oil tanker has lost some of it’s load, up to 200 tonnes it’s said, in the St Lawrence seaway. How is this related to Liberal Transportation you ask? The ship was part of the Canada Steamship Lines fleet. For those of you who’s ears don’t recognize the name, this is the fleet that is registered in the Bahamas and belongs to the family of Paul Martin. For shame! I fully expect the Liberals to be as vocal about environmental damage as they have been in other situations.

Then, under the “Head in the Sand (Ash?) Dept.”, several Liberal MP’s were “stranded” in Newfoundland back in April when the Airport decided to cancel morning flights as ash from Iceland’s Eyjafjoell volcano was predicted to arrive. They began to cover their tracks by suggesting there was a conspiracy involved. It was found out that in light of the planned cancellations, additional earlier flights were provided. Tsk tsk tsk.

In 2008, then Leader of the Official Opposition Stephane Dion had a little trouble with transportation. It seems the Liberals were unprepared for an election they were so busy preparing for. When the time came, poor Mr. Dion was unable to acquire a plane to bring him around the country. When he was finally able to get one from Air Inuit, it turned out to be a massive gas guzzler that cost the party between $18,000 and $20,000 an hour to fly, and was 35 per cent less efficient than the Conservative and NDP planes. To top it all off, this was the launch of the Green Tax Tour.

Maybe it (LPC) just needs a jump-start?

More likey, it just needs a casket.

The Liberals and Helena Guergis

So, is it obvious to anyone else but me that the Liberals are now setting the stage to court Helena Guergis over to the Liberal Party of Canada?

Their rhetoric against the government (about how this Minister was incompetent and that her behaviour was unacceptable as an MP et al.) and the demands that she should be fired was going full steam when they felt fairly confident that the Conservatives wouldn’t do anything about it.

Now, when the Government took immediate action and left them flat-footed and windless, they are shocked and dismayed that an MP should be so callously treated by their Party.

The Liberals, and the Liberal Party of Canada, have become so conciliatory lately in their language and are painting her in the role of the “victim” at the hands of a ruthless and unforgiving Conservative Party of Canada.

It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if even already, Ms. Guergis has been quietly assured (or at least has had it suggested) that there would be a place for her with the Liberals, if she so chose. And why not? She appears to have significant backing in her riding and may very well be a “winner” in the next election, provided she was running for a Party instead of as an Independant.

And she wouldn’t even have to “cross the floor” to do it.

End result for the Liberals? If you can’t take the riding with a Liberal, try and pinch it with a former Conservative.

Bring down Conservatives over Afghan detainee documents

This Afghan detainee torture-transfer issue makes me want to see a contempt of parliament motion to bring down this minority Conservative government. I think the NDP can do that. However, my suspicion is that the Conservatives want that too — you know, part of their secret agenda and all.

Regardless, blacking out texts is behavior that belongs with the Soviet Union: better dead than red.

Conservatives Dominate Another Fundraising Quarter

To say that the Conservative Party raised the most money in the last quarter would be to give you only part of the story.

The story would not be complete without repeating what has now become a familiar refrain in Canadian federal politics: the Conservative Party dominated yet another fundraising quarter.

Here are the most recent fundraising numbers for the quarter ending March 2010, as detailed in the political financing database of Elections Canada:

Conservative Party: $4,023,923.14
Liberal Party: $1,589,953.81
Bloc Québécois: $123,069.64
NDP: $900,198.01
Green Party: $233,285.57

To put it in other words, the Conservative Party raised $1,177,416.11 more than all other political parties combined.

What is more, the Conservative Party attracted just about as many contributors as all other parties put together: there were 32,466 Conservative donors versus 32,537 donors for the Liberal Party, the Bloc Québécois, the NDP, and the Green Party.

Just a few years ago under the leadership of Jean Chrétien, the Liberal Party was firmly entrenched as the dominant force in Canadian political fundraising. But no longer.

In recent years, the Conservative Party has consistently outperformed the other parties, both with respect to dollars and donors.

What explains this contemporary reversal of fortunes? I suggest two possibilities: this man and this law, which was amended by this important Act in 2004.

Do any other possibilities come to mind?

Rhetoric and Reality in the 2008 Presidential Election

Last week, as I thought about the remarkable rhetorical abilities of Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama, I was struck by the similarities in their respective paths to the White House.

As candidates, both Reagan and Obama were challengers to the incumbent party candidate. In Reagan’s case, he squared off against President Jimmy Carter of the then-governing Democratic Party. For his part, Obama faced John McCain, a member of the incumbent Republican Party. Both were at first deemed unprepared for a presidential run, but the tide quickly turned in their favour.

Curious, I then expanded the sample size to include all presidential elections since 1980.

What I’ve found is that presidential challengers have defeated the incumbent party candidate on four occasions–and on each of those occasions the challenger won by invoking the rhetoric of redemption.

This may or may not come as a surprise.

But what is interesting, I think, is that there may be a disconnect between rhetoric and reality in the case of the 2008 presidential election. I’ve developed this argument in a bit more detail in my latest piece at the Huffington Post.

Comments welcome, both online and offline.

The Next Governor General

Yesterday, Don Martin suggested that the current Governor General could be replaced next year. That sounds reasonable to me. After all, by September 2010, the Governor General will have served for five years, which is well in keeping with the tenure of her predecessors, the last five of whom served for roughly six, four, five, six, five and five years, respectively.

So let’s take this occasion to think creatively about who should be chosen as the next Governor General of Canada.

Who doesn’t like a good game of speculation? I’m always in for that.

In the Honduran Election, the Role of Ronald Reagan Will be Played by Barack Obama

Back in the summer, news outlets were aflame with the Honduran “coup“, but, as sometimes happens, the public and the media seem to grow weary of a story, and do not follow through its progress with the same vigour it displayed during the initial incident.

In that vein, I’d like to point out (because I haven’t seen it mentioned in many places) that Honduras has held its election to choose a new president, and that president is Porfiro Lobo.  From The New York Times:

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras — Porfirio Lobo, a longtime conservative politician, appeared headed toward victory on Sunday in the Honduran presidential election, which many hoped could help the country emerge from the crisis caused by last summer’s coup and end its isolation.

The electoral tribunal said Sunday night that Mr. Lobo had 52 percent of the vote, with almost two-thirds of the votes counted. That gave him a margin of 16 percentage points over his main opponent, Elvin Santos.

The decision by the Honduran congress to refuse to re-instate former president, and wannabe dictator, Manuel Zelaya for the remaining two months of his scheduled term is great news.  Honduras still has a lot of problems, but they have demonstrated an adherence to the principles of constitutional democracy – a stand for which they have received too little support from other nations of the “free world”.

Of course, Zelaya’s comrades in tyranny are not so happy.  From Bloomberg:

Venezuela said U.S. President Barack Obama, after recognizing Honduran election results, joins earlier presidents who had “violent relations” with the continent such as Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.Venezuela’s Foreign Ministry reiterated it won’t recognize the “farce” elections in Honduras on Nov. 29, and condemned other governments in the region that have done so, including Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica.

“The government of Barack Obama is now openly inscribed in the tradition of violent relations with our continent, recalling the insulting times of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, among others,” the Foreign Ministry said in an e-mailed statement. “The position of the U.S. government was particularly shameful as the principal architect of the coup.”

Congrats, Mr. Obama.  Being despised by a dictator is a badge of honour.

It’s Not If But How You Read Into the Results

The morning after has once again dawned upon Canada, as political junkies everywhere wake up to digest the results of last night’s election results — in this case, the election of four MPs from BC, Quebec and Nova Scotia. Let the spin game begin, as every pundit and party tries to put their own face on the results in order to somehow frame the public mind. For what it’s worth, I would suggest that it’s not a choice between seeing significance and insignificance in last night’s results — there’s always a message voters are sending by who they vote (or don’t vote) for. However, it’s always a danger in byelections to read too much into the result.

So, what did we see last night and what should it mean? First, byelections are more strongly influenced by the local game, be it the strength of the team on the ground, or the local ties the candidates have to the region. That is why, as much as the Christian Heritage Party had hopes in winning the Nova Scotia riding (and amazed a few people by tying the Green candidate for the early part of last night), byelections aren’t simply an affair of mind over matter — you need to have a reasonable shot to begin with.

In this regard, Quebec’s Rivière-du-Loup result was helped by a tier-one Tory candidate and confirms that the spat between Stephen Harper and Jean Charest is indeed behind the two men.

Nova Scotia’s Cumberland was heavily favoured for the Tories, although last night demonstrates that the NDP, as a duel federal/provincial entity) has done some terrific work in building up its organization. Perhaps it’s a stretch here, but if folks need a reinforcement that Stephen Harper isn’t toxic out east any longer, Nova Scotia lends heavy evidence to that.

New Westminister-Coquitlam was the most cut-and-dry riding that was even up for contention last night, with the NDP’s Fin Donnelly easily winning the western riding. Much hay will be made about the HST issue being a factor, although this is as much as a stretch as saying that the Conservative government’s actions over the last year helped it win Cumberland decisively last night — the riding was already in the orange column, and the increased vote differential between the Tories and NDP could be a number of factors: it could be the HST, or a better ground game, or even BC’s famous, patented way of producing unusual election results. The NDP did everything that they needed to do here, but predictions of larger NDP gains on the west coast next time are exaggerated.

Finally, in Hochelaga the news wasn’t that the BQ won so much as the Liberals bled. The fact that the Official Opposition didn’t do better than third in any of the contests last night is, again, laregly due to a strong NDP machine that just happened to get byelection calls in the three provinces it’s prospecting in. This isn’t Michael Ignatieff imploding or the NDP’s coming ascension to Official Opposition (well, not yet anyway), but rather that typical Liberal voters are getting excited by the notion of throwing a few more New Democrats in to the House mix. There is plenty of time for the Liberals to correct for this, especially when you consider the Liberals weren’t going to come close to winning the Montreal riding anyway, but last night does serve as a reminder to the Liberal team that their attempts at inspiring Canadians are being outdone by the other two federalist leaders, and that it might be time to redraw the playbook.

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