Now, the other thing that I think needs to be considered (and this sort of leans against my thoughts on the matter), is that Jack Layton has in the past proven himself to be a remarkable opportunist. There have been times where he has made a surprising (but not necessarily remarkable) change in direction in order to capitalize on opportunity in the House of Commons. Some refer to these events as “making parliament work” or “being flexible in a spirit of compromise”. Others refer to it as lifting one’s skirts (or dropping their trousers) to the highest bidder. Whatever the reasons for it, and regardless of the gains, such reversals damages the credibility of a party and/or its leader.

So, if Jack Layton were to agree to another Coalition, I would be surprised, but I wouldn’t be shocked. Still there are a few things that Jack Layton and the NDP will have to remember.

1) They need the Liberals and the BLOC more than those parties need the NDP. Jack Layton may be able to press for more “considerations” than he was getting before because of the events surrounding the last Coalition effort, but he still can’t push too far. The Liberals would be the ones in power, and Liberals don’t easily share that. Neither do the Conservatives really, but that’s not really an unexpected dynamic if we really want to be honest about it.

2) Jack Layton will have to eat a little crow and bow over a few Liberal hands because of the attacks he made against the Liberals shortly after the previously mentioned Coalition deal fell apart in the hands of Michael Ignatieff. This could be hard given “feelings” since the fallout.

3) Jack Layton is going to have to convince Michael Ignatieff that he’s not a threat, and provide the reassurances that he can be “controlled” in a Cabinet Situation. Michael Ignatieff is an autocratic leader who must be seen as being in control. He’s not the pushover that Stephane Dion appeared to be. If Jack Layton can’t make Ignatieff believe this, then Ignatieff will take his chances with the electorate.

4) Both the NDP and the Liberals would have to find a way to marginalize the BLOC within the Coalition without alienating them. Granted, the BLOC have little interest in anything outside of Quebec, but they’re not insensitive to the opportunities and leverage that their support can provide Quebec in terms of money, autonomy and other material/temporal gains.

5) Jack Layton and the NDP would have to sell the Coalition to Canadians, and convince them that the NDP didn’t simply “sell themselves out” for the promise of power. This is probably the most important and most difficult part of this whole idea, and I have a hard time believing that they could pull it off.

Mind you, as I said before: Endless optimism in unrealistic goals has never been a problem for the NDP.

You’ve actually convinced on your first and third points. You are right about the disconnect between perception and reality in the case of the NDP’s influence in the current Parliament. Only a real student of the Canadian political landscape could see that. You are also right–at least I think you are, upon further reflection–that there is no turning back for the NDP on the Senate. None. It would, as you correctly argue, be too dramatic a swing.

I have to think, though, that the coalition would be welcome news for the NDP, particularly for Jack Layton. He has had a few kicks at the can, and nothing yet has led to the groundbreaking reversal of fortunes that his arrival was expected to produce. The coalition would present loads of possibilities for him — deputy PM, maybe — that would ultimately benefit the NDP brand, in my view.

I’m of course not entirely sure about this. The only thing I am indeed certain of, however, is that it would be fun — but not so good from the perspective of market stability — to see it all unfold.

Great comments.

Second, there is the more interesting topic of the next election. When it will come, no one can say for certain… well, no one except perhaps Jack Layton. For he holds the balance of power in the tug of war that is sure to take centre stage between the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party when Parliament reconvenes in September.

Don’t be so certain that Jack holds the balance of power here. It might appear that way, but at every opportunity, Jack Layton has stood by his record and has basically said that nothing is going to change in that regard. His tactic here is to throw the responsibility of defeating the government in the laps of the Liberals and claim the supposed moral highground by claiming he kept his integrity in maintaining his established position.

First, if the Liberal plan is to revive the December 2008 idea of a Liberal-Bloc-NDP coalition government, Layton, I think, would have no choice but to jump in. The coalition would change the political calculus in Canada and open up a number of possibilities that could bare fruit for Layton and the NDP.

I disagree here. Canadians outright rejected a Coalition, and I think Jack Layton is still feeling too badly burned by the Liberals to trust them in that respect. I honestly believe that his pride would get in his way over this, just as his hubris is what got him into that trouble in the first place.

For one, the NDP is unlikely to make substantial gains in a federal election held this fall. With currently 36 seats in the House of Commons, the NDP has very little room to grow, particularly given the very real threat it faces from the Green Party on its left and the Liberals on its right.

This I agree with completely. However, I haven’t seen this stop them in the past. The NDP, if nothing else, is the endlessly optimistic party here in Canada. They always believe that they will achieve more than they do. Thomas Mulcair I believe was a fluke really, based more on person than party/policy and the gains of the Provincial NDP in Nova Scotia is an illusion that likely will not be repeated federally. But as I said, this has never stopped them before, so why should it now?

Lending the NDP’s votes to the Conservatives, at least for the next session of Parliament, could well serve not only Layton himself but more importantly the NDP as a political institution.

Imagine the goodwill Layton would cultivate with his party if he managed to extract, in exchange for the NDP’s support, a promise from Stephen Harper to appoint Broadbent or McDonough to the Senate when the next vacancy arises in Ontario or Nova Scotia, respectively.

On this I am frankly unable to set aside current record. Jack Layton has talked the NDP into a position where this would simply be impossible to pull off. His rhetoric throughout the Session before the last election until now has completely alienated himself from the Conservatives and if he were to try such a tactic, he would essentially be betraying everything he has brought his party and it’s members to stand for lately. He would be severely punished for this by his vote base, the least of whom would be within his own caucus (Mulcair). No, this is something that not even Jack Layton’s optimism could survive.

Personally, what I think the NDP should do is try to make enough noise to draw attention to themselves again at the expense of the Liberals. NDP attacks against the Conservatives have rarely ever earned them any support outside of their core people and are unlikely to ever sway someone considering voting Conservative towards the NDP. That’s a 180-degree turnabout there. Undecided voters require nudging, not dramatic reversals as they’re already predisposed towards a certain direction in the spectrum. Their best chances lie in those who are considering Liberal (and BLOC in Quebec) to sway to their brand as those people are usually predisposed to their kind of philosophies.

The NDP will only ever make incremental gains and are unlikely to ever form Government in Ottawa. If they want to become relevant in Canadian Politics again, they need to dump Jack Layton as leader and bring forward someone who can be the voice of sweet reason in the Government’s ear and encourage reasonable alternatives to the Government of the day. They need to be the party that is easy and desirable to work with instead of the shrieking fringe they appear to have become under Jack Layton’s watch.

Just my opinion.

I stand corrected – May is a dud, but the constituency we lost to the Greens must be brought back, as well as progressive Liberals.

It’s been infuriating over the past years seeing the NDP being ignored by the media and being pigeonholed as the party of the past. A change of name is merely cosmetics, but it has to do something to re-energise passion and support from a new and growing constituency. I’m talking about the new and not-so-young disenfranchised voters, as well as those now supporting the Green Party.

In my mind, I feel the Social Democrat Party (that would have been my vote) should develop and articulate economic policies that will debunk the tax-and-spend myth (using Manitoba’s model), as well as well as highlight environmental sustainability policies that would woo back their lost flock from the Greens.

At the very least, some rapprochement with Elizabeth May (coalition?) could bolster voter support. Roughly calculating from last Federal election, the sum of NDP/Green support would have been close to 30% (please correct, I don’t teach math), which could have put a completely different complexion to our current Parliament.

Some bold and principled moves need to be made soon. In this information age, the party must have the savvy to create, communicate and carry out its vision. If not – it pains me to say this – democratic socialism in Canada is in peril.

Or, are they too scared to have the general population know who they truly are.

The NDP certainly matters these days. My hope would be that they try to stake out a principled platform, rather than just playing politics… but I have no real optimism about that. Though, don’t get me wrong, I still wouldn’t support them, I just think it’s healthier for Canada when they’re articulate rather than screeching.

Of course, with the Tories enacting a pretty NDP-like program, pumping a billion dollars into the fading manufacturing industry, it might just be best for the NDP to sit back and let Harper enact their policies.

Iffy is in the most vulnerable state he will ever be in.
Not elected by the grassroots, no platform for the Libs to mull over, the next election is high risk for him, to introduce himself and a ‘new and improved Green Shift’ to the party and the country.

Liberals are the ONLY party that shouldn’t want an election this early.
Libs should wait until the recession is over, so as they can spend some big money on their socialist platform.
But they won’t, power calls….they are soooo gonna lose.