Ontario PC 2009 Leadership Convention: B2 Results & Updated Scenario Breakdown

Here are the B2 results, which still has no candidate over 50%:

Hudak: 4128 (39.96%)
Klees: 3299 (31.94%)
Elliott: 2903 (28.10%) [dropped]

TOTAL: 10330

This is where it’ll get interesting folks! While Hudak leads Klees by a steady 8%, that number is presumed to rapidly shrink as the Elliott and Hudak camps fought this campaign as though the other side was the one to defeat. However, with Elliott off the ballot, a lot of her supporters are expected to move to Klees. To win, Hudak will need to get around 35.75% of Elliott’s points while Klees will have have to get around 64.25%. It’s not as easy for Hudak as the numbers suggest, and (again) I bet the Hudak team is really wishing they kept the contest against Elliott a little less polarized right now!

As an aside, 15 points were dropped between B1 and B2 (10345 to 10330); this is curious given the points system the OPC uses for it’s leadership system although there might be a perfectly good explanation for this in the details.

Suspender Update:

As expected, Hudak enjoyed most of the second-choice support from Hillier supporters, gaining just over 600 of the 1013 points avaliable in B2. What is surprising is that Klees and Elliott split the remainder (Klees received an additional 206 points; Elliott, 175). One little known fact in this race is that Hillier and the Landowners supported Klees in the 2004 race, but I guess without the open talk of health care choice from Klees and Elliott’s flat tax proposal, many of the libertarian-oriented Hillier fans were literally split as to what to do after Randy got dropped…

Pink Waffle Update: Courtesy of United & Strong, we now have the riding-by-riding breakdown of who won on B2. I did a quick comparison and here below are the changes for those ridings where the winner has flipped.

A few observations:

1) All three ridings Hillier won on B1 went to Hudak on B2.
2) Scarborough, Mississauga, Ottawa and Simcoe proved very hotly contested, with a lot of horse trading in all of those areas.
3) Elliott picked up three ridings (two Klees, one Hudak) this round, Klees took four (three from Hudak; broke the tie in Davenport) and Hudak 11 (five Klees, and three each from Elliott and Hillier)

Format: (Riding B1 Winner -> B2 Winner)
Carleton-Missippi Mills Hillier -> Hudak
Davenport 3-way tie (Hudak, Elliott, Klees)-> Klees wins
Etobicoke Centre Klees -> Elliott wins
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell Hillier wins -> Hudak wins
Lambton Kent Middlesex Klees wins Hudak wins
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington Hillier -> Hudak wins
Mississauga Streetsville Hudak -> Klees wins
Mississauga-Brampton South Klees -> Hudak wins
Northumberland-Quinte West Elliott -> Hudak wins
Ottawa Vanier Elliott -> Hudak wins
Ottawa West Nepean Hudak -> Elliott wins
Scarborough Centre Klees -> Hudak wins
Scarborough Guildwood Klees -> Elliott wins
Scarborough Rouge River Klees -> Hudak wins
Simcoe-Grey Hudak -> Klees wins
Simcoe-North Hudak -> Klees wins
St Paul’s Elliott -> Hudak wins
Windsor West Elliott -> Hudak wins