At this point in the primaries, it seems very probable that Obama will win the Democratic nomination. I support Clinton in the contest, and while history tells us to never write off a Clinton, I must say that it looks like Barrack is inevitable.
So the question that comes to mind for conservatives is twofold: First, can McCain win? And second, perhaps more important, should he?
McCain represents a classical neocon. He tends to be more of a moderate on economic issues, while being a hardline conservative on social issues. While many conservatives would support him simply because of the letter behind his name, I simply cannot do that.
Against Obama, I have a hard time choosing a better candidate. Neither one represents my views, and neither one would make a good President. Obama represents the young, idealistic, far left wing of the Democrats, while McCain represents the old, social conservative wing of the Republicans. For all the noise about him being a maverick, he tends to toe the party line where it counts, and that’s not good.
However, many polls have him at a good pace with Obama, and the math seems to be in his favour. In the present state of American politics, a Democrat cannot win without carrying New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and California. Right now Obama is doing poorly in all of those States, and is actually behind McCain in Pennsylvania.
Considering the fact that mere months ago, it was the prevailing view (and in some circles still is) that after Bush, any Democrat can beat any Republican, this current state of events can only be attributed to the fact that Clinton is destroying Obama’s credibility, and support within his own party.
Many of the states that Democrats at one point considered a possiblity, such as the Upper South, are complete write-offs for the Republicans. Obama has no chance there, and McCain will pick them up handily.
Basically, the Dems have only one shot at winning, barring some unforeseen circumstances. They have to hold onto the Kerry states from ‘04, which is possible, and take Ohio. No other states that went for Bush in 2004 are even a remote possibility for them now.
but if I’m McCain, I’m looking at the numbers, and I’m smiling. If he can take all of Bush’s states, which I think is quite possible, then all he has to do is take a state with as small an electoral college as New Hampshire, and he’s got the Presidency. Basically, the smart money is on McCain at this point.
However, is that good for conservatives? I’m going to say no. I want the Democrats to win, and win big. I’m tired of Republicans fighting for votes in the fever swamp known as “Christian values Conservatives”. I want a more libertarian party, with more focus on small government. And that simply cannot happen until the party is shaken up.
GOBAMA.
Darryl Wolk wrote:
Great post!
Posted on 18-Apr-08 at 9:14 am | Permalink
Pissedoff wrote:
Oh well if you liked Jim C you would love these two
Posted on 18-Apr-08 at 11:14 am | Permalink
George Freeman wrote:
Interesting analysis.
That said, I don’t think reading John McCain as some rabid social conservative is correct. He is a maverick primarily because a lot of social conservatives recoil at the thought of him being the Republican nominee.
Does he have a socially conservative voting record? Sure. But McCain is no “Christian values” politician, which is why a lot of Christian leaders in the States are wary of him. He struggle to speak their language on their issues. For instance, he’s a big supporter of state rights when most social conservatives are not (i.e. constitutional ban on gay marriage).
What makes McCain a great nominee for the Republican party is: A.) his willingness to campaign everywhere, even places you would think he should just write off (but he does it because he’s a conviction politician and leads by convincing others of his policy direction, AND he knows that doing so demonstrates that he is not interested in narrow factionalism), and B.) he is able to articulate, and particularly well given his personal heroism and patriotic service, a common sense ground to good and evil in the world. A lot of people find that he provides good perspective on the problems facing the US.
At the end of the day, the trend in 2008 seems to be in favour of broad based principled politics and personal integrity. On the face of it, John McCain demonstrates both, which is why even so many Democrats respect him. Even Obama admits that McCain is a great American with a tremendous record of service to his country.
In some ways McCain has the most exciting candidacy of them all. He has the integrity of Bob Dole but with a certain manly edginess that makes him anything but old and dull.
Not only is his campaign very unorthodox (not the fund raising machine of Bush-Cheney), he will attract votes because his politics of conviction hold him up quite well, even against Obama, if not more so.
McCain’s record is one of staking out a principled position and leading others to where he wants to take them and the country. It’s hard not to respect someone willing to take a lot heat for going against the tide of popular opinion. His support for the Iraq troop surge long before it happened, and when it was widely unpopular, highlights this clearly. His criticism of how Bush handled the war highlight this from the opposite direction.
Obama would be a disaster. It’s one thing to state high platitudes with oratorical flourish, it’s quite another to live up to them. At some point, high platitudes have to make sense to people in real world contexts.
McCain can demonstrate both, which is why, unlike Bush, he attracts so many supporters of Clinton AND Obama as THEIR second preference.
Posted on 18-Apr-08 at 12:12 pm | Permalink
George Freeman wrote:
I should also add, in 2004, John Kerry tried to convince McCain to be his VP on the Democratic ticket.
Posted on 18-Apr-08 at 12:20 pm | Permalink