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	<title>Comments on: Canada is Aging, We Need More Babies.  Should Families be considered &#8220;Producers&#8221;?</title>
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	<link>http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/</link>
	<description>Conservative group weblog that publishes daily commentary on political events and topics affecting Canada, the United States and the world.</description>
	<pubDate>Sun, 20 Jul 2008 20:42:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Shane</title>
		<link>http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/#comment-180185</link>
		<dc:creator>Shane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Mar 2008 15:30:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/#comment-180185</guid>
		<description>Thanks for that.  I actually enjoyed reading it.

I'll comment on the native issue.  The difference between utilizing them as an untapped labour pool vis a vis immigration - immigrants, when they move to Canada, have the expectation of work (in general), and do not expect substantial government support.  Whereas, aboriginal populations have been raised in a situation where they are guaranteed an income and all kinds of other subsidies simply for being aboriginal.  Why work when you don't have to?  I am not saying all aboriginals think this but I think it is fair to say that a larger percentage than the general population does.  Hence, it is harder to actualize them into job training and direct employment than immigrants.

I think this is even true of aboriginals versus mainstream Canadians.  Natural progeny of mainstream Canadians do not expect to have college paid for by the government.  They don't expect to have a home, and living stipends provided by the government.  Maybe from their parents, but not from the government.  Hence, it is easier to actualize them into the workforce than it would be for aboriginals.

I know these are sweeping generalizations, but I can't think of another reason why they wouldn't be actualized.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks for that.  I actually enjoyed reading it.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll comment on the native issue.  The difference between utilizing them as an untapped labour pool vis a vis immigration - immigrants, when they move to Canada, have the expectation of work (in general), and do not expect substantial government support.  Whereas, aboriginal populations have been raised in a situation where they are guaranteed an income and all kinds of other subsidies simply for being aboriginal.  Why work when you don&#8217;t have to?  I am not saying all aboriginals think this but I think it is fair to say that a larger percentage than the general population does.  Hence, it is harder to actualize them into job training and direct employment than immigrants.</p>
<p>I think this is even true of aboriginals versus mainstream Canadians.  Natural progeny of mainstream Canadians do not expect to have college paid for by the government.  They don&#8217;t expect to have a home, and living stipends provided by the government.  Maybe from their parents, but not from the government.  Hence, it is easier to actualize them into the workforce than it would be for aboriginals.</p>
<p>I know these are sweeping generalizations, but I can&#8217;t think of another reason why they wouldn&#8217;t be actualized.</p>
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		<title>By: Smarter than Ezra</title>
		<link>http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/#comment-180184</link>
		<dc:creator>Smarter than Ezra</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Mar 2008 15:15:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/#comment-180184</guid>
		<description>Indeed, Shane, I am quite familiar with those arguments vis-a-vis immigrant integration and am very aware of the "costs of socialization and immigration."  I work in the field.  For the most part, those costs are for basic language training - immigrants have access to integration programming until they become citizens, which on average, takes just over 3 years.  The Government of Canada gives grants to organizations like the YMCA to help immigrants develop the language skills they require to find jobs.  Only 30-40% of immigrants actually use these services, depending on their availability and jurisdiction. I have read the articles you have posted, and hundreds more.  In fact, I have published a few of my own research papers on the topic.  You are right when you say that immigration is not a panacea for the "problem" of reduced furtility or population ageing.  BUT it certainly is the cheapest option (which was what SE put forward).  If you look at total government spending on immigrant integration vs. total spending on early childhood development, health care, k-12, postsecondary education, etc., you will see that there is no comparison in costs at all (less than 1% actually). So again, if cheap is what you want, then immigration is the the best option.

One of the topics I like to think about, and write about, is the drivers or demands for more people in Canada.  Labour force shortages are by far the main factor.  There is a large school of thought out there that if Canadian inddustry is not growing at x% each year that there is a problem.  Sadly, this growth far outstrips any reasonable forcasts for population growth (babybooms aside), and so we look elsewhere for people.  

Indusry in Canada cannot bring people in fast enough to fill the demands.  And yet, they often ignore one of the largest sources of untapped human capital (and the only young and still growing population) in Canada.  On average, Aboriginal people are 10 - 15 years younger than non-Aboriginal Canadians.  They are also still having children at a rapid rate (one might say, it is there turn to have a babyboom after the residencial school war/disease).  Yet governments and employers look elsewhere for their needs.  I often wonder why we encourage people to cross oceans to work here, when we could drive a few hours north and find 1000s of young people who just need a little help and someone to take a chance on them.  Again, if you are looking at cost reduction, well, it doesn't cost anything to process the immigration applications of people who are already born here - and who are incidently still having children.  

Yes, people are ageing, and eventually they will die, just like everyone else.  The babyboom was a phenonena of unprecidented population growth following two world wars.  Steady population growth, otherwise, has been the trend for centuries.  Demographers like to talk about the effect of the babyboom on population ageing because they have never seen it before.  First, this is the longest war free period for our population, second, advances in health care and safety measures in the work place have all contributed to the longevity of our citizens.  Sure, our population will start to decrease when they all begin to die, but won't that trend be the same as, say, another war or plague?  The only difference is that this time people will die from old age, instead of machine guns and disease.

Now, don't get me wrong, I am all for governments spending money now to improve the outcomes of children in Canada.  If the research is right, spending on early childhood development is the most efficient investment possible - considering the returns are better health and education, and lower poverty and crime.  

I guess what I take issue with is the simplistic way the argruments were framed above when there are so many other factors at play.  Encouraging Canadians to have more children is overly simplistic (just as the push to bring in more imigrants).  In fact, one could make a very good argument against encouraging more Canadians to have children given labour market shortages (playing devil's advocate here), because women would, by necessity, have to remove themselves from the labour force for X number of years in order to do that (right when the demand for labour is at its peek).  Indeed, another factor that has been left out of your thinking is the financial independence women have gained through making strides in the labour force over the past 20 years.  This has impacts on a many of the topics you have raised, to name one, divorce rates.

What is needed is a good hard look at whether or not our labour force growth is sustainable, what the pros and cons of allowing national demographics to determine the size of the labour force (and therefore Industrial growth) or whether we should put measures in place to encourage the migration (be that from heaven or India) of newcomers to Canada to meet a demand that is in most likelyhood not sustainable at all.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Indeed, Shane, I am quite familiar with those arguments vis-a-vis immigrant integration and am very aware of the &#8220;costs of socialization and immigration.&#8221;  I work in the field.  For the most part, those costs are for basic language training - immigrants have access to integration programming until they become citizens, which on average, takes just over 3 years.  The Government of Canada gives grants to organizations like the YMCA to help immigrants develop the language skills they require to find jobs.  Only 30-40% of immigrants actually use these services, depending on their availability and jurisdiction. I have read the articles you have posted, and hundreds more.  In fact, I have published a few of my own research papers on the topic.  You are right when you say that immigration is not a panacea for the &#8220;problem&#8221; of reduced furtility or population ageing.  BUT it certainly is the cheapest option (which was what SE put forward).  If you look at total government spending on immigrant integration vs. total spending on early childhood development, health care, k-12, postsecondary education, etc., you will see that there is no comparison in costs at all (less than 1% actually). So again, if cheap is what you want, then immigration is the the best option.</p>
<p>One of the topics I like to think about, and write about, is the drivers or demands for more people in Canada.  Labour force shortages are by far the main factor.  There is a large school of thought out there that if Canadian inddustry is not growing at x% each year that there is a problem.  Sadly, this growth far outstrips any reasonable forcasts for population growth (babybooms aside), and so we look elsewhere for people.  </p>
<p>Indusry in Canada cannot bring people in fast enough to fill the demands.  And yet, they often ignore one of the largest sources of untapped human capital (and the only young and still growing population) in Canada.  On average, Aboriginal people are 10 - 15 years younger than non-Aboriginal Canadians.  They are also still having children at a rapid rate (one might say, it is there turn to have a babyboom after the residencial school war/disease).  Yet governments and employers look elsewhere for their needs.  I often wonder why we encourage people to cross oceans to work here, when we could drive a few hours north and find 1000s of young people who just need a little help and someone to take a chance on them.  Again, if you are looking at cost reduction, well, it doesn&#8217;t cost anything to process the immigration applications of people who are already born here - and who are incidently still having children.  </p>
<p>Yes, people are ageing, and eventually they will die, just like everyone else.  The babyboom was a phenonena of unprecidented population growth following two world wars.  Steady population growth, otherwise, has been the trend for centuries.  Demographers like to talk about the effect of the babyboom on population ageing because they have never seen it before.  First, this is the longest war free period for our population, second, advances in health care and safety measures in the work place have all contributed to the longevity of our citizens.  Sure, our population will start to decrease when they all begin to die, but won&#8217;t that trend be the same as, say, another war or plague?  The only difference is that this time people will die from old age, instead of machine guns and disease.</p>
<p>Now, don&#8217;t get me wrong, I am all for governments spending money now to improve the outcomes of children in Canada.  If the research is right, spending on early childhood development is the most efficient investment possible - considering the returns are better health and education, and lower poverty and crime.  </p>
<p>I guess what I take issue with is the simplistic way the argruments were framed above when there are so many other factors at play.  Encouraging Canadians to have more children is overly simplistic (just as the push to bring in more imigrants).  In fact, one could make a very good argument against encouraging more Canadians to have children given labour market shortages (playing devil&#8217;s advocate here), because women would, by necessity, have to remove themselves from the labour force for X number of years in order to do that (right when the demand for labour is at its peek).  Indeed, another factor that has been left out of your thinking is the financial independence women have gained through making strides in the labour force over the past 20 years.  This has impacts on a many of the topics you have raised, to name one, divorce rates.</p>
<p>What is needed is a good hard look at whether or not our labour force growth is sustainable, what the pros and cons of allowing national demographics to determine the size of the labour force (and therefore Industrial growth) or whether we should put measures in place to encourage the migration (be that from heaven or India) of newcomers to Canada to meet a demand that is in most likelyhood not sustainable at all.</p>
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		<title>By: Shane</title>
		<link>http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/#comment-180183</link>
		<dc:creator>Shane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Mar 2008 13:04:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/#comment-180183</guid>
		<description>You haven't factored in the costs of socialization and integration, nor have you examined the article I linked to which deals with the reality that immigrants do not solve the problem of an aging population.  Take in older people and you get an older population.  The demographic crisis is only delayed by a handful of years by relying on immigration.

Secondly, immigration will only be a stopgap as within 30 years, there will be no more surplus population in the 3rd world to immigrate here.  What then?  Attitudes and patterns have to change before then.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You haven&#8217;t factored in the costs of socialization and integration, nor have you examined the article I linked to which deals with the reality that immigrants do not solve the problem of an aging population.  Take in older people and you get an older population.  The demographic crisis is only delayed by a handful of years by relying on immigration.</p>
<p>Secondly, immigration will only be a stopgap as within 30 years, there will be no more surplus population in the 3rd world to immigrate here.  What then?  Attitudes and patterns have to change before then.</p>
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		<title>By: Smarter than Ezra</title>
		<link>http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/#comment-180170</link>
		<dc:creator>Smarter than Ezra</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Mar 2008 00:48:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/#comment-180170</guid>
		<description>You can tell I have been working way too long today (and not making babies).  Sorry for all the typos, guys.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You can tell I have been working way too long today (and not making babies).  Sorry for all the typos, guys.</p>
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		<title>By: Smarter than Ezra</title>
		<link>http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/#comment-180169</link>
		<dc:creator>Smarter than Ezra</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Mar 2008 00:42:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/#comment-180169</guid>
		<description>If your goal is the cheapest total cost of production of human resources, then the answer would be immigration.  Brining in a 24 year old from somewhere else costs governments a lot less.  Here is the logic.  The costs of early childhood development, health care, dental care, k-12 and postsecondary education are absorbed by foreign countries and no longer become the expense of tax payers.  The current immigration system selects a large portion of Canada's immigrants based on a human capital model, whereby the average level of education is MUCH higher than that of the Canadian born citizen (again, those who governments have subsidized heavily up unilt then).  Immigrant families also tend to have more children, on average, than Canadian born families, but this is the best we can hope for.  You see, the children of immigrant families quickly adopt Canadian behaviors, and their birthrate levels off.

So again, if your goal is the cheapest, then look no further than China, India, and South East Asia for immigrants.  There is no shortage of people wanting to come to Canada.

Is this what you mean by pragmatic and more efficient?

Just throwing that out there.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If your goal is the cheapest total cost of production of human resources, then the answer would be immigration.  Brining in a 24 year old from somewhere else costs governments a lot less.  Here is the logic.  The costs of early childhood development, health care, dental care, k-12 and postsecondary education are absorbed by foreign countries and no longer become the expense of tax payers.  The current immigration system selects a large portion of Canada&#8217;s immigrants based on a human capital model, whereby the average level of education is MUCH higher than that of the Canadian born citizen (again, those who governments have subsidized heavily up unilt then).  Immigrant families also tend to have more children, on average, than Canadian born families, but this is the best we can hope for.  You see, the children of immigrant families quickly adopt Canadian behaviors, and their birthrate levels off.</p>
<p>So again, if your goal is the cheapest, then look no further than China, India, and South East Asia for immigrants.  There is no shortage of people wanting to come to Canada.</p>
<p>Is this what you mean by pragmatic and more efficient?</p>
<p>Just throwing that out there.</p>
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		<title>By: Shane Edwards</title>
		<link>http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/#comment-180165</link>
		<dc:creator>Shane Edwards</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Mar 2008 21:01:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/#comment-180165</guid>
		<description>I think that pragmatism is a philosophy of convenience.  On the one hand, we are expecting the government to see pragmatically the costs to the health care system increasing if smoking is not discouraged, so the government acts to discourage smoking.  Yet, as we see marriages fall apart in the last 30 years and the rise of single parents distanced from the extended family, we have seen a simultaneous rise in rates of youth crime and delinquency, and schools have become war zones.  Coincidence?  This is what I am talking about.

I have nothing against homosexual couples per se, but looking at the situation of a gay couple raising a child, it has much the same problem as a single parent.  If the child only experiences one gender in their primary growing environment, it will stunt their growth socially.  Yes, this could be overcome with exceptional steps, but that is the point.  If there are extra steps, extra costs involved in socializing the child, then that is a pragmatically wasteful proposition.

But to your earlier point, vis a vis IVF, this is an expensive treatment that would not be necessary in many cases if women were encouraged to look at embarking on childbearing earlier in life.  Hence, pragmatically, society (and government) should look at means of encouraging earlier pursuit of children, for there to be the cheapest total cost of production of human resources.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think that pragmatism is a philosophy of convenience.  On the one hand, we are expecting the government to see pragmatically the costs to the health care system increasing if smoking is not discouraged, so the government acts to discourage smoking.  Yet, as we see marriages fall apart in the last 30 years and the rise of single parents distanced from the extended family, we have seen a simultaneous rise in rates of youth crime and delinquency, and schools have become war zones.  Coincidence?  This is what I am talking about.</p>
<p>I have nothing against homosexual couples per se, but looking at the situation of a gay couple raising a child, it has much the same problem as a single parent.  If the child only experiences one gender in their primary growing environment, it will stunt their growth socially.  Yes, this could be overcome with exceptional steps, but that is the point.  If there are extra steps, extra costs involved in socializing the child, then that is a pragmatically wasteful proposition.</p>
<p>But to your earlier point, vis a vis IVF, this is an expensive treatment that would not be necessary in many cases if women were encouraged to look at embarking on childbearing earlier in life.  Hence, pragmatically, society (and government) should look at means of encouraging earlier pursuit of children, for there to be the cheapest total cost of production of human resources.</p>
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		<title>By: Abattoir</title>
		<link>http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/#comment-180164</link>
		<dc:creator>Abattoir</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Mar 2008 19:57:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2008/03/18/canada-is-aging-we-need-more-babies-should-families-be-considered-producers/#comment-180164</guid>
		<description>The underlying theory seems like an interested idea worth exploring, Shane.  Many people on both sides of the aisle have been pushing for some kind of financial incentives for families.  I haven't seen much progress to date.

As to the specifics...you would disqualify those taking fertility treatments? Most couples have to pay the full costs of IVF out-of-pocket, so I fail to see the difference after that.  The no-gays clause wouldn't survive the first Constitutional challenge.

So other than the whole second-last paragraph, I would support moves in this direction.  Ironic though that you're calling on liberals to 'start scaling back' - the Cons are the ones who have bloated the government to its current size.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The underlying theory seems like an interested idea worth exploring, Shane.  Many people on both sides of the aisle have been pushing for some kind of financial incentives for families.  I haven&#8217;t seen much progress to date.</p>
<p>As to the specifics&#8230;you would disqualify those taking fertility treatments? Most couples have to pay the full costs of IVF out-of-pocket, so I fail to see the difference after that.  The no-gays clause wouldn&#8217;t survive the first Constitutional challenge.</p>
<p>So other than the whole second-last paragraph, I would support moves in this direction.  Ironic though that you&#8217;re calling on liberals to &#8217;start scaling back&#8217; - the Cons are the ones who have bloated the government to its current size.</p>
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