Polling Blues: Not Much Progress?
September 19, 2007 · By Shane Edwards
The Star (snicker) thinks the Tories are still stuck, tied with the Liberals nationally for support.
You would think, that before printing such an article, that someone would ask why, when we have ready, current polling information from the by-elections that the Conservative support in Quebec has surged, and the Liberal support has fallen so low it may be 3rd in the province now, if not 4th.
Quebec’s population represents a disproportionately large percentage of Canada. If the Conservative support is surging there, and the Liberal support tanking, then there are two possibilities to explain this poll:
- The poll is in error;
- The proportionate support for the two parties is doing the exact opposite in the rest of the country - ie. Conservative support is slipping badly in English Canada as its fortunes in Quebec rise, while Liberal support is rising, while their party falls apart in Quebec.
I think there would be a lot more evidence of 2. if it were true. That leaves us with 1. If we are left with 1, then why did they waste ink on this story?
‘The survey results suggested the Liberals lost some ground in Ontario and Quebec recently, while gaining support in Atlantic Canada.’
Does Atlantic Canada hold enough weight to zero out losses in Ont & Que ??
The Tories will win a majority the next election hands down. The reason tey’re tied in “opinion polls” is because people don’t have to live with any consequences of saying “Liberal”; they don’t have to think twice about it. At the ballot box, especially in Quebec, that’s where people will hesitate and think twice about marking their ballot Liberal. That uncertainty will deliver seats to Harper
It’s a cliche to say that we shouldn’t invest any long-term confidence in by-election results. But the Roberval by-election, I think, has long-term consequences. If the Liberals are no longer the federalist/soft nationalist alternative outside Montreal and they are going to struggle to hold onto their seats on the island, then the party is in a much weaker state heading into the next election. They will have to depend more and more on Toronto and the surrounding areas, which really shouldn’t be naturally Liberal ridings. Like Halton.
Could Garth possibly be more entertaining?:
“Outremont is so yesterday”
“Quebec’s population represents a disproportionately large percentage of Canada.”
Could you explain this statement? I’m really trying to understand this, but it doesn’t make much sense.
To me, the next election is looking like a rerun of the previous election. I think it will be another Conservative minority, maybe slightly larger, but still a minority. But one thing is for sure: Harper can push much harder on his agenda in Parliament as neither the Bloc nor the Liberals want an election anytime soon. Should be an interesting fall.
Sure, I’d be happy to explain.
It is easy to think of Canada as one big block divided into 10 equal chunks. We are trained by the concept of premiers that the provinces are or should have equal weight. In reality, they don’t, and parliament’s constituency layout reflects this reality, not the “equal provinces” reality.
Statistics from 2005 illustrate this: Quebec had the same population as BC and Alberta combined at 7 and a half million. Hence, when thinking of the provinces as “equal”, Quebec becomes disproportionate, population-wise. A change in party support in Quebec has twice the impact on government as a change in party support in say Alberta.
But more than this, parliament in fact overloads or overdistributes seats to Quebec in the name of cultural equality. So, a shift in Quebec has even a disproportional amount of effect on the seats in the house than even its proportion of the population suggests.
[...] the subject of polling blues, Shane Edwards explains why swings in party support in Quebec have such a dramatic effect federally [...]
then why did they waste ink on this story
The poll was released immediately after the byelections in an attempt to cool the anticipated anti-Dion sentiment expected after his brutal showing. I will wait for other polls confirming this one before giving credence to it.
Actually the poll is very close to the by-election results for 3 of the parties:
BQ:by-elections (down 17% from 2006) poll (down 20% from 2006)
Con:by-elections (up 12%) poll (up 1.5)
Lib:by-elections (down 3%) poll (down 5%)
NDP:by-elections (up 8%) poll (up 8.5%)
Oth:by-elections (up 0.5%) poll (up 15%)
OK, I get what you mean, Shane. Thanks for the explanation. I didn’t realize that you were starting with the assumption that all provinces “should” have one-tenth of the population.
Your point about Parliamentary malapportionment is a good one and that helps to explain the relative overimportance of Atlantic Canada even more.