Comments on: Polling Blues: Not Much Progress?

By: Sick of Tory Ranting

Sick of Tory Ranting — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 14:39:22 +0000

OK, I get what you mean, Shane. Thanks for the explanation. I didn’t realize that you were starting with the assumption that all provinces “should” have one-tenth of the population.

Your point about Parliamentary malapportionment is a good one and that helps to explain the relative overimportance of Atlantic Canada even more.

By: Brendan Kane

Brendan Kane — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 02:42:39 +0000

Actually the poll is very close to the by-election results for 3 of the parties:
BQ:by-elections (down 17% from 2006) poll (down 20% from 2006)
Con:by-elections (up 12%) poll (up 1.5)
Lib:by-elections (down 3%) poll (down 5%)
NDP:by-elections (up 8%) poll (up 8.5%)
Oth:by-elections (up 0.5%) poll (up 15%)

By: ferrethouse

ferrethouse — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 00:31:58 +0000

then why did they waste ink on this story

The poll was released immediately after the byelections in an attempt to cool the anticipated anti-Dion sentiment expected after his brutal showing. I will wait for other polls confirming this one before giving credence to it.

By: ThePolitic.com » More MPs? McGuinty asks PM

ThePolitic.com » More MPs? McGuinty asks PM — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 00:04:26 +0000

[...] the subject of polling blues, Shane Edwards explains why swings in party support in Quebec have such a dramatic effect federally [...]

By: Shane

Shane — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 22:48:19 +0000

Sure, I’d be happy to explain.

It is easy to think of Canada as one big block divided into 10 equal chunks. We are trained by the concept of premiers that the provinces are or should have equal weight. In reality, they don’t, and parliament’s constituency layout reflects this reality, not the “equal provinces” reality.

Statistics from 2005 illustrate this: Quebec had the same population as BC and Alberta combined at 7 and a half million. Hence, when thinking of the provinces as “equal”, Quebec becomes disproportionate, population-wise. A change in party support in Quebec has twice the impact on government as a change in party support in say Alberta.

But more than this, parliament in fact overloads or overdistributes seats to Quebec in the name of cultural equality. So, a shift in Quebec has even a disproportional amount of effect on the seats in the house than even its proportion of the population suggests.

By: Sick of Tory Ranting

Sick of Tory Ranting — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 22:17:29 +0000

“Quebecâ€™s population represents a disproportionately large percentage of Canada.”

Could you explain this statement? I’m really trying to understand this, but it doesn’t make much sense.

To me, the next election is looking like a rerun of the previous election. I think it will be another Conservative minority, maybe slightly larger, but still a minority. But one thing is for sure: Harper can push much harder on his agenda in Parliament as neither the Bloc nor the Liberals want an election anytime soon. Should be an interesting fall.

By: Aaron Unruh

Aaron Unruh — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 21:46:47 +0000

Could Garth possibly be more entertaining?:

“Outremont is so yesterday”

By: Aaron Unruh

Aaron Unruh — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 21:45:11 +0000

It’s a cliche to say that we shouldn’t invest any long-term confidence in by-election results. But the Roberval by-election, I think, has long-term consequences. If the Liberals are no longer the federalist/soft nationalist alternative outside Montreal and they are going to struggle to hold onto their seats on the island, then the party is in a much weaker state heading into the next election. They will have to depend more and more on Toronto and the surrounding areas, which really shouldn’t be naturally Liberal ridings. Like Halton.

By: Matt

Matt — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 18:53:45 +0000

The Tories will win a majority the next election hands down. The reason tey’re tied in “opinion polls” is because people don’t have to live with any consequences of saying “Liberal”; they don’t have to think twice about it. At the ballot box, especially in Quebec, that’s where people will hesitate and think twice about marking their ballot Liberal. That uncertainty will deliver seats to Harper

By: wilson61

wilson61 — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 18:04:26 +0000

‘The survey results suggested the Liberals lost some ground in Ontario and Quebec recently, while gaining support in Atlantic Canada.’

Does Atlantic Canada hold enough weight to zero out losses in Ont & Que ??