Could Bronco buck conventional wisdom?
June 14, 2007 · By jaunque
There has been some talk on this board, namely here and here to be specific, that Calgary mayor Dave Bronconnier is lining up for a run at the leadership of the provincial Liberal Party.
While this provides an easy explanation for his ongoing fued with Stelmach, and his recent nitpicking with Ted Morton, the obvious question one has to ask is why would he want to vacate his plumb municipal posting to become the leader of an opposition party in Edmonton?
With one poll indicating that Bronconnier has the backing of nearly 7 in 10 Albertans in his “feud” with Stelmach, and with his city riding a wave of unprecedented prosperity, why would Bronco vacate one of the province’s safest and most high profile political posts to rule a party that hasn’t managed to break the 20 seat mark in Alberta since 1917?
It stands to reason that if Bronconnier were to make the jump to provincial politics, it would have to be a pretty sure bet that he was going to do so as a member of the governing party- possibly as a cabinet minister, or even Premier.
Is that going to happen as a Liberal? Not bloody likely.
While the provincial Liberals are riding a high after a fairly unconvincing bylelction win in Calgary Elbow, and distant yet surprisingly strong second-place finish in Drumheller-Stettler, in the long term that party is going nowhere in Alberta.
Although the provincial PC’s and Liberals are virtually indistinguishable these days, the main difference between the two parties is that the vast majority of Albertans outside of Edmonton would rather slit their throats than vote Liberal. It doesn’t matter that the Liberals haven’t governed Alberta since 1921, the voters here will continue to punish the party for their association to the federal cousins until the NEP has become a faded memory, and that ain’t happening any time soon.
This isn’t exactly a secret, and you’ve got to know that Bronconnier knows this as much as anyone.
He also has to know that the Liberal win last Tuesday wasn’t the beginning of one of Alberta’s epic political transitions. It was simply the result of the Liberals being more motivated than everyone else, while the vast majority of PCs just stayed home. While Stelmach’s performance has been underwhelming, most Conservatives would rather not vote than vote for the Liberals.
Therefore if Bronconnier has political aspirations provincially, it stands to reason that only one party would be an attractive option for him now and in the future- the Alberta Progressive Conservatives.
I can already hear the cacophony, “But Bronconnier’s a Liberal, blah, blah, blah.”
This may be true, but you know what, so was Stelmach’s predecessor, the one and only Ralph Klein before jumping on board the goodship Tory. As it turns out, he also enjoyed a rather successful stint as mayor of Calgary prior to his accession to the Premier’s chair. “But what about his feud with Stelmach/ Morton?” -you may ask- “he’s trying to bring down the Conservatives!!” Well, as western Conservative’s figured out many years ago, it’s good politics to demonize your political masters, whether they be in Edmonton or Ottawa. His spat with Stelmach is straight out of the PC playbook, and when it comes to baiting Stelmach and Morton, what’s Bronco got to lose?
Stelmach was as popular as Raffi Torres in Calgary during the PC leadership runoff, and Morton was a distant second to Jim Dinning as Calgary’s chosen candidate when the smoke had cleared.
While Bronco may alienate a few of Morton’s supporters by picking on the SRD Minister, chances are if you live in Calgary and backed Morton, you don’t like Bronco to begin with.
The question you have to ask is, would he be doing this if Jim Dinning was in power? For a variety of reasons, the answer is probably no: Instead Edmonton would be busy snivelling about how Dinning ignores them, and Brian Henninger would have won Calgary- Elbow in a landslide. Now this is pure speculation on my part- I have no insider connections feeding me hot gossip- and I could care less if Bronco dropped off the face of the earth tomorrow. However, when I hear people speculate about Dave Bronconnier taking over from Kevin Taft to take a run at the PC Powerhouse, it just doesn’t make any sense.
If I were Bronconnier, and I wanted to be Premier, I’d throw my lot in with the Party that can deliver the votes regardless of whether it’s Stelmach or a donkey at the helm. After Stelmach’s rural experiment goes bust, the PC’s will be clamoring for a leader who can reconnect with Calgary; appeal to the Red Tory element in Edmonton; and can dish out enough goodies to keep rural Alberta interested despite the fact the party has been drifting beyond centre faster than Wayne Gretzky. We’ve already seen that Dinning isn’t the man- too slick. Neither is Stelmach (too rural) or Morton (too scary, I guess).
For my money, the obvious candidate to put the PC Party back together again is Bronconnier. You heard it here first.
Interesting take on Bronco’s game. It all depends on how proud of a Liberal Bronco is, or whether he’ll play broker; show that he understands the reality of how hard it is to elect Liberals in Alberta.
HOWEVER, there is another scenario. Stelmach’s game plan seems is seemingly be nice, be quiet, be the compromise leader. He hasn’t really defined what his leadership of the Progressive Conservatives, and the government, means beyond that, compromise.
Any strategist will tell you that in the run up to the next election, having settled into the Premier’s office, Stelmach is going to have to start giving Albertan’s a more visible, clearly defined face to his government. And he had better wise up to the fact that he is going to be fighting a two front war; a Liberal minority government not that far fetched.
While Dinning would have flanked the Liberals to face off against the Alliance; Morton would have done the reverse. But Stelmach is the compromise candidate! Unless he stops being the compromise candidate, Bronco could conceivably run as a Liberal and become the next Premier.
Realistically, depending where Stelmach moves and how adroitly, anyone of the three parties could be a potential minority government; though I suspect the Alliance faces a similar situation to that of the ADQ in Quebec—institutionally immature.
If Dave were thinking about jumping to the provincial PCs, I seriously doubt that he’d be as harsh in his attacks on the government now. To me, his behaviour points to a run at the leadership for the provincial Liberals. Attacking the government lets him prime the conditions for his own leadership run under the guise of standing up for Calgary. His attack on Morton was pointless, except that it probably pleased the silly Liberal activist base in Alberta that thinks Morton is the devil.
Unless there is some serious vote spliting on the right, which judging by the current status of the right of PC parties isn’t very likely, I don’t think the PC’s as currently constituted are in danger of losing any upcoming election.
They would have to suffer a complete collapse in Calgary during the next election, and despite the recent by-election, I doubt that will happen. There are some strong PC candidates who will retain their seats, despite Stelmach’s bumbling, and outside of Calgary and Edmonton, the Liberals (and NDP) will have no currency whatsoever.
I guess we will know the answer in the run up to municipal elections in October. If Bronco throws his hat in for another term, that probably means he isn’t interested in the Liberal job. He would have to make his interest known now, in hopes that Taft will fall on the sword, and step aside for him to establish himself before the next election.
If the Lib’s have a strong showing provincially with Taft as leader, he won’t be going anywhere for one more term.
In the meantime, if the Tories fall apart, then the search for a new leader will be on, and Bronco will be perfectly placed to step in and save the PC Party.
Like I said before, Stelmach’s supporters will likely back the leader whoever it is, as will much of rural Alberta, as long as they’re PC and there’s no challenger on the right. Morton’s camp doesn’t factor into the equation, as the potential supporters of Bronconnier would also have been Dinning supporters, and they made their feelings known on Morton’s place in the party during the leadership campiagn.
Granted, if Bronco won, I’m sure Morton and his camp would vacate the premesis, which could threaten the PC’s future prospects. However Bronco would likely reposition the party as Alberta’s “Progressive” Conservative party, and ultimately the losers in this situation would be the Liberals. We’d have a realignment of the party system in Alberta, which is ultimately a good thing, because then we’d have at least one viable true conservative party in the province, as opposed to the absence of one right now.
I hear you guys, but if Bronco didn’t end up as PC leader, I’d be surprised.