They would have to suffer a complete collapse in Calgary during the next election, and despite the recent by-election, I doubt that will happen. There are some strong PC candidates who will retain their seats, despite Stelmach’s bumbling, and outside of Calgary and Edmonton, the Liberals (and NDP) will have no currency whatsoever.

I guess we will know the answer in the run up to municipal elections in October. If Bronco throws his hat in for another term, that probably means he isn’t interested in the Liberal job. He would have to make his interest known now, in hopes that Taft will fall on the sword, and step aside for him to establish himself before the next election.

If the Lib’s have a strong showing provincially with Taft as leader, he won’t be going anywhere for one more term.

In the meantime, if the Tories fall apart, then the search for a new leader will be on, and Bronco will be perfectly placed to step in and save the PC Party.

Like I said before, Stelmach’s supporters will likely back the leader whoever it is, as will much of rural Alberta, as long as they’re PC and there’s no challenger on the right. Morton’s camp doesn’t factor into the equation, as the potential supporters of Bronconnier would also have been Dinning supporters, and they made their feelings known on Morton’s place in the party during the leadership campiagn.

Granted, if Bronco won, I’m sure Morton and his camp would vacate the premesis, which could threaten the PC’s future prospects. However Bronco would likely reposition the party as Alberta’s “Progressive” Conservative party, and ultimately the losers in this situation would be the Liberals. We’d have a realignment of the party system in Alberta, which is ultimately a good thing, because then we’d have at least one viable true conservative party in the province, as opposed to the absence of one right now.

I hear you guys, but if Bronco didn’t end up as PC leader, I’d be surprised.

HOWEVER, there is another scenario. Stelmach’s game plan seems is seemingly be nice, be quiet, be the compromise leader. He hasn’t really defined what his leadership of the Progressive Conservatives, and the government, means beyond that, compromise.

Any strategist will tell you that in the run up to the next election, having settled into the Premier’s office, Stelmach is going to have to start giving Albertan’s a more visible, clearly defined face to his government. And he had better wise up to the fact that he is going to be fighting a two front war; a Liberal minority government not that far fetched.

While Dinning would have flanked the Liberals to face off against the Alliance; Morton would have done the reverse. But Stelmach is the compromise candidate! Unless he stops being the compromise candidate, Bronco could conceivably run as a Liberal and become the next Premier.