Doer’s 3rd: The Ontario Factor
May 22, 2007 · By Matthew Campbell
Going into the 21st century, not much was thought about with regards to the “dynasty” enjoyed by the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, whom ruled over Canada’s largest province for 42 consecutive years (and could’ve lasted a bit longer if the leadership at the time was a bit wiser in the ways of strategy). Political scientists have labeled this era a fluke, a contained event, an exception; something that we’re not likely to see ever again.
It is with this in mind that I write tonight about Manitoba Premier Gary Doer’s victory tonight which will allow his NDP to sit for another four years on the government side of the legislature. I have to admit that I have only been following the election casually, since I was out of the country, moving and doing a few other major tasks over the last few weeks but one thing I have consistently heard is that Manitobans were not inclined to switch parties despite a few issues that certain groups were upset over. The most memorable promise was that of the McFadyen PC Party, who had told the electorate that they would return the Winnipeg Jets to the capital city of the province if they were elected. This promise was symbolic to me of just how much the PC Party of Manitoba was desperate to win this election at any cost; however it looks like they will be a few collegues short when the legislature resumes its work later this year now.
What stands out more, getting back to my original thoughts is that the election that concluded tonight is much like those of the Ontario PC dynasty, and could easily transpose itself onto the Ontario scene later this year when that province goes to the polls. What the PC Party of Manitoba failed to realize (and what their Ontario cousins are also forgetting so far) is that the incumbant government, despite being the other guys, are currently satisfactory to the electorate. It’s not that the Doer government or the Ontario McGuinty Liberal government have done good jobs over the past four years (they haven’t), it’s that they haven’t really screwed up yet. This is much the same song we heard during Jean Chretien’s reign in Ottawa, and even during the early days of the Martin regime. Admittedly, it’s much harder to unseat a popular government than one which is going through crisis, but the one way you don’t do it is to try to mimic that government as much as possible. The two PC Parties in central Canada are making a fatal mistake by misreading the contentment of the public for their provincial governments as a sign that they would only elect parties that are like the incumbants.
Hugh McFadyen is now a footnote in history, and likely to be replaced soon. I could tell that much when he admitted in his speech tonight that Manitobans were happy with the Doer government; that’s not likely to sit well with the grassroots. Now John Tory is up to bat in his province, hindered by a desire to be as Liberal as possible, while offering a difference from McGuinty and his crew just large enough to make people vote for them. Obviously neither leader has heard of the old saying “don’t fix what ain’t broke”; if they did, they’d know that the only path to victory when you have a content electorate would be to expose the incumbants as the masters of a broken government; one which would need fixing, and one that the PC Party had a clear plan to put straight. The parallel mindset of these two men though (move to the centre, try to woo the voters of the province’s largest city by cheap gimmicks) will gurantee them quick passage to a leader’s tribute at a not-too-distant leadership convention. Now the only question is if John Tory is so blind to what has happened next door to him tonight that he’ll be campaigning on a promise that Toronto will win the Stanley Cup if he becomes the next Ontario Premier!
I think you hit the nail pretty much on the head with that commentary. You hear a lot of people here in MB saying that they don’t like any of the parties … they didn’t care who won. Under those circumstances the incumbents will rule due to name recongition, and the risk-adverse nature of switching to someone else (the devil you know…) The PCs failed to distinguish themselves, and call out the gov’ts failures.
It is amazing that there is no viable Conservative alternative in Manitoba, and they chose someone with an obvious mental defect to lead that party this time around.
There is still a smell attached to the party from Filmon, but really, after so many years of Communism, you’d think that the people would like to go “back into the light” of Capitalism.
Many of us former Manitobans would love to go back (minus the skeeters) if there was something to go back to.
I think McFadyen is a personable and intelligent guy, and has the potential to take the Conservatives into power next time around, if he lays the groundwork and runs a more sophisticated campaign.
cherenkov, McFadyn had the chance to run a sophisticated campaign, but instead chose to be gimmicky (ie. Jets) and socialist mixed with gimmicky (ie. promise to keep crown corp public forever). Manitoba PC’s deserve better than this. Hopefully Tory will not do the same in Ontario when the platform gets launched in a couple weeks.
McFadyen is finished as leader of the PC’s. He failed to remind voters of the Crocus scandal, Doer forcing floodway workers to pay union dues, zero progress on the healthcare file, etc. McFadyen decided to turn the PCs into NDP-lite.
View from the West is right, there is no Conservative option in Manitoba. All the real Conservatives in Manitoba stayed home this election.
Manitobans who wanted change weren’t offered a viable option, so the sitting government will continue to drive this province into the ground.
Natedawg, I agree completely with your last statement.
I am not in the inner circle of the MB PC party, but I suspect that McFadyen is a true conservative at heart, at least by Manitoba standards. I suspect he was lead astray by the campaign organizers, and hopefully has learned his lesson. I could be wrong.
I hope your right Cherenkov. Personally I don’t think McFadyen is a true conservative, but like you I’m an outsider.
Realistically the NDP were probably the party furthest to the right during this campaign; while the PCs tried to take the middle and the Liberals took the left.
How can any true blue Conservative support a party that is as schizophrenic as the MB PC’s?
I remember way back when Sterling Lyon was Premier, and there was some socialists around (Norther Manitoba reserves, North End of Wpg, Transcona, etc.), but for the most part they stayed in the bush picking flowers.
At the U of M in the 80′s, you couldn’t walk 10 steps without bumping into a Castro wannabe. I even burned a few brain cells at the bars with these folks, but with the Prof’s preaching this shit, along with the solid Unionism in Manitoba, it was just a matter of time.
Now it’s just bringing the kids back to visit relatives and going to Grand Beach for a week.
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