The Liberal-Separatist Alliance: Did Dion vote for Boisclair?

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That’s the judgement I made when I heard Dion flailing about looking desparate to find anything to attack the PM last nite. I mean, gawd, the pro-Canada forces took 89 of 125 seats last nite & the guy’s pissed about it, but i’m not surprised. Along with the separatists, the biggest loser from last nite were the federal Liberals.

Liberals Box Themselves In With Their Own Accusations – The Stockwell Day Document Story With a Twist!

A new video has been posted on YouTube showing that the Liberals blatantly ignored a House of Commons moving label put on the boxes from which they’ve found confidential information about Public Safety Minister Stockwell Day. Just why did the Liberals keep these boxes and how do they explain the labels that were still on them when Ontario Liberal MP Mark Holland made his big announcement this week?

The video can be seen here:

Liberal Quebec Complacency? Calgary (Harper) vs Montreal (Dion)

As expressed by the Bearded Oracle:

Harper will also believe now that with the crushing of the separatist vote, the federal Liberals’ traditional role of representing Canada within Quebec can be usurped by him. Yup. A cowpoke from Alberta, ready to rope up a mess of ridings in je-me-souviens land…Standing in his way, however, is Stephane Dion, and the question of whether Quebeckers want to vote for a guy from Calgary, or one from Montreal.

Is this a serious sentiment held within the Liberal Party? That Dion can neglect Quebec because the province would never vote for a Calgarian over a Montrealer?

Or is Garth just out to lunch?

I am liking the ADQ more and more

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I HATE the ADQ, because they stand for a vision of Quebec society that thinks minorities are hurting the Quebec way of things, and openly campaigned on that. Not my Quebec. My Quebec is a civic nation; Mario Dumont’s Quebec is a civic nation with conditions. (That won’t cut it for me sorry)

Over at “Je me souviens moi” Land – Garth’s Reaction to the Quebec Election

As is the tradition here at ThePolitic, I’ve visited The Garth’s website tonight to see what the wise bearded one from Campbellville (no relation to his former boss) had to say. About Dumont,

Mario Dumont is a social conservative, a throwback to the Union National and Social Credit days in Quebec. He embodies values of family, religion, roots and regions that had been forgotten by the increasingly urban mainline parties. Dumont was able to tap into that fatigue Quebec voters had with a never-ending debate between federalism and separatism, and talk instead about kids, the economy, health care and schools. He is the antithesis of the slick professional politician Charest, who has lived the life of a privileged minister, or leader, or premier, for the past twenty years.

In other words, he’s not exactly flatering to the new Official Opposition leader of the National Assembly. Of course, Garth can be prolific from time to time, quite by accident. I see a similar paragraph being written at the end of May if his election prediction of a spring election comes true:

The new Conservative Halton MP is a social conservative, a throwback to the Union National and Social Credit days in Quebec. He embodies values of family, religion, roots and regions that had been forgotten by Garth and the Liberal Party. The new MP was able to tap into that fatigue Halton voters had with a never-ending debate between Garth and the camera, and talk instead about kids, the economy, health care and schools. He is the antithesis of the slick professional politician Garth, who has lived the life of a privileged minister, or failed leadership candidate, or premier (in his dreams), for the past twenty years.

Be careful where you point you finger Garth…there’s four pointing right back at you!

From Honduras to Vancouver, with love

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Her companion…ducked into a nearby alley and returned with an eight-foot length of construction rebar, which he drove through Mintus’ head…

His assailant fled, and Fanning said police are looking for Jairo Barrientos, 21, a Honduran national who has applied for refugee status in Canada. He has a number of drug-related convictions in the western U.S.

Quebec Election – Meet the Face of the New Natural Governing Party of Quebec…

Well, I gotta admit, I was ready to make this blog post regardless of where the ADQ sat tonight so long as they got their expected 20-25 seats that Craig Oliver et al. said they would. Of course, it was almost expected by people who really paid attention to this that the ADQ would surpass expectations tonight, and that they did! Tonight marks a turning point in Quebec politics as far as I see it; one that will be just as big as the Quiet Revolution was 40 years ago.

Mario Dumont’s assention to a major player in Quebec politics was actually back in 2003, when Quebecers indicated their distaste for two status-quo parties who were only separated by their separatism stances. They could both swing right, but usually swung left and lived in a dream world which many Quebecers began to wake up from at the turn of the century. Dumont’s ADQ soared to the high-30 percent range in support during the 2003 election, and would have stayed there if the province’s public didn’t recoil when reminded that this was an untested party with an untested leader. The appeal always remained though.

That brings us to tonight, where Quebecers didn’t so much give the Liberals another mandate as they put Dumont into a position wherein they can watch how he handles a *little* power, as a uniquely positioned Official Opposition leader in a minority legislature. Dumont will be Charest’s most natural ally, but also his greatest threat. If the ADQ caucus, now over 40 members strong, can develop a star team and build a reputation as a government-in-waiting, the next election will by Dumont’s to lose. In the mean time, there’s lessons from tonight for others to note:

The PQ-Naturally, tonight was very disappointing for Her Majesty’s former disloyal Opposition. Boisclair is naturally toast. Unlike the Quebec Liberals though, the Parti Quebecois found iit’s support erroding to historic lows tonight thanks to a strong ADQ. Rural Quebecers in particular are going to the ADQ in droves, whereas before they were loyal PQ supporters. Unless the party does something drastic, and fast (I doubt they will), they will join the Union Nationale in the pages of has-been political parties in Quebec.

The Federal Conservatives-As another pundit said earlier in this campaign, mark up ever ADQ win as room for the CPC to grow in during the next federal election.

The Federal Liberals-This is trouble. If Quebec separation becomes irrelevant, so to will Quebec’s threats come time for the division of federal dollars among the provinces. The Constitution might finally be ratified by Quebec. Most importantly, the Liberals could lose the biggest weapon they’ve relied upon to get all those wins they did during the last forty years. Ontario won’t be so scared into voting Liberal if national unity doesn’t need protecting…

The NDP-The ADQ was also a third party that represented an ideological part of the society they served in. In 13 years, they’ve gone onto Official Opposition status and becoming a potential governing party. In the last 20 years, the NDP has lost government in all but two provinces it governed in (and will lose those two soon too if present indications hold); that wouldn’t be bad except that it faces irrelevance in Alberta, Newfoundland, PEI and Newbrunswick, is only making moderate gains in Ontario, will take a while to recover in BC and is tied with the Greens federally. In other words, it lacks momentum. Nova Scotia is it’s only hope right now. Might I offer that the reason the ADQ sees so much growth while the NDP sees decline is because the ADQ is always trying to improve itself, keep relevant but also use its ideology as a tool to develop new policy and ideas. The NDP, on the other hand, is still stuck in the 1960s.

The Bloc-I understand there federal government offers a very nice retirement package!

The Ontario PCs-See! Having a backbone can pay off! Trying to flatter everyone when they see through you doesn’t!

The Ontario Liberals-Minority in Ottawa. Minority in Quebec. Election this fall… Dalton, you may be the lesser of evils right now, but just like Charest, if one of your opponents (likely Howard Hampton) can put some fire in his campaign, you too will find yourself having to wheel and deal with the opposition parties! Better make a darn good platform if you have a hope of avoiding this fate!

Quebec Election Live Blogging – Part 3

10:57 – Wow, Charest has close d the gap to trail by only 110 votes now!

11:27 – Charest now leads in his riding by almost 700 votes. This one is going to a recount. 30-odd polls still have to report…

Quebec Election Live Blogging-Part 2

10:20 – Charest still behind by 1000 votes now in Sherbrooke…wow!

The precident in such a case as Charest losing his seat by the way, for those who are interested, is for the Liberals to be asked to form government by the Governor General. A leader of the party will then have to be select a member of his caucus to lead the government (and serve as Premier) till he can get a seat. This can be done by one of his caucus members resigning in a safe seat (which seems to be a rare kind tonight!), have a snap by-election and have Charest win.

CTV’s Craig Oliver: Spring Election a Certainty…

Craig Oliver on Newsnet’s coverage of the Quebec election says that these results are “a win for Harper… a win for Canada” and that a spring election is now “a certainty.”

What do you think?

UPDATE: Let’s try a little live-blogging:

9:53: Charest trails by 400 in Sherbrooke. Can a leader-less party form government with a razor-thin plurality?

10:00: CTV desk predicts Liberal minority. First vote will be on the budget, which, one would assume, will be drastically rewritten with ADQ help.

10:04: Charest now trails by over 700. Wells’s First Rule of Politics is being brutally violated.

10:23: Dennis Trudeau on CTV’s panel suggests that if Charest loses (currently trails by 1000), the Liberal caucus will have to elect the next leader. Panel agrees.

10:36: Charest’s narrowing the gap in Sherbrooke.

10:38: This article by Alexander Panetta outlines the close ties between the federal Tories and the ADQ — which seem to indicate good things for a forthcoming federal election.

10:48: CBC/Radio-Canada have declared Charest defeated. Still seems like he has a chance based on CTV’s numbers. Many tears on-screen at PQ headquarters. Good.

11:17: Boisclair mentioned Quebec’s development about three or four times for every time he mentioned Quebec’s independence. He did not concede, and he came off well. Because it’s a minority that could fall at any time, perhaps he’ll be around for the next one?

11:23: Charest elected in Sherbrooke. Dumont about to give his concession speech. Charest went from 60 down to almost 700 up in about 4 polls. That’s a huge swing. Big comeback, and this will help stabilize the Liberal minority (though I think the knives will still be out for Charest).

11:31: Dumont describes theme as “family,” thanks his… it was suggested before his speech, that the price of his support for the budget might be a $100 monthly cheque for families with stay-at-home mothers.

So, yeah… I think Harper could do ok here.

11:34: Boisclair’s speech was interrupted by chants of “le Quebec, un pay,” Dumont’s by “Mario, Mario.”

11:38: “families… the middle class… seniors.” Spring. Election.

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