Quebec Election - Meet the Face of the New Natural Governing Party of Quebec…

Well, I gotta admit, I was ready to make this blog post regardless of where the ADQ sat tonight so long as they got their expected 20-25 seats that Craig Oliver et al. said they would. Of course, it was almost expected by people who really paid attention to this that the ADQ would surpass expectations tonight, and that they did! Tonight marks a turning point in Quebec politics as far as I see it; one that will be just as big as the Quiet Revolution was 40 years ago.

Mario Dumont’s assention to a major player in Quebec politics was actually back in 2003, when Quebecers indicated their distaste for two status-quo parties who were only separated by their separatism stances. They could both swing right, but usually swung left and lived in a dream world which many Quebecers began to wake up from at the turn of the century. Dumont’s ADQ soared to the high-30 percent range in support during the 2003 election, and would have stayed there if the province’s public didn’t recoil when reminded that this was an untested party with an untested leader. The appeal always remained though.

That brings us to tonight, where Quebecers didn’t so much give the Liberals another mandate as they put Dumont into a position wherein they can watch how he handles a *little* power, as a uniquely positioned Official Opposition leader in a minority legislature. Dumont will be Charest’s most natural ally, but also his greatest threat. If the ADQ caucus, now over 40 members strong, can develop a star team and build a reputation as a government-in-waiting, the next election will by Dumont’s to lose. In the mean time, there’s lessons from tonight for others to note:

The PQ-Naturally, tonight was very disappointing for Her Majesty’s former disloyal Opposition. Boisclair is naturally toast. Unlike the Quebec Liberals though, the Parti Quebecois found iit’s support erroding to historic lows tonight thanks to a strong ADQ. Rural Quebecers in particular are going to the ADQ in droves, whereas before they were loyal PQ supporters. Unless the party does something drastic, and fast (I doubt they will), they will join the Union Nationale in the pages of has-been political parties in Quebec.

The Federal Conservatives-As another pundit said earlier in this campaign, mark up ever ADQ win as room for the CPC to grow in during the next federal election.

The Federal Liberals-This is trouble. If Quebec separation becomes irrelevant, so to will Quebec’s threats come time for the division of federal dollars among the provinces. The Constitution might finally be ratified by Quebec. Most importantly, the Liberals could lose the biggest weapon they’ve relied upon to get all those wins they did during the last forty years. Ontario won’t be so scared into voting Liberal if national unity doesn’t need protecting…

The NDP-The ADQ was also a third party that represented an ideological part of the society they served in. In 13 years, they’ve gone onto Official Opposition status and becoming a potential governing party. In the last 20 years, the NDP has lost government in all but two provinces it governed in (and will lose those two soon too if present indications hold); that wouldn’t be bad except that it faces irrelevance in Alberta, Newfoundland, PEI and Newbrunswick, is only making moderate gains in Ontario, will take a while to recover in BC and is tied with the Greens federally. In other words, it lacks momentum. Nova Scotia is it’s only hope right now. Might I offer that the reason the ADQ sees so much growth while the NDP sees decline is because the ADQ is always trying to improve itself, keep relevant but also use its ideology as a tool to develop new policy and ideas. The NDP, on the other hand, is still stuck in the 1960s.

The Bloc-I understand there federal government offers a very nice retirement package!

The Ontario PCs-See! Having a backbone can pay off! Trying to flatter everyone when they see through you doesn’t!

The Ontario Liberals-Minority in Ottawa. Minority in Quebec. Election this fall… Dalton, you may be the lesser of evils right now, but just like Charest, if one of your opponents (likely Howard Hampton) can put some fire in his campaign, you too will find yourself having to wheel and deal with the opposition parties! Better make a darn good platform if you have a hope of avoiding this fate!