What Is John Duffy Talking About?
February 20, 2007 · By Joel
Duffy (scroll down to see his comment):
I’ll repeat a question that continues to loom ever larger. Is the Prime Minister considering resigning government and triggering dissolution? The constitutionality of such a move is not in doubt; the federal precedent is 1958 – an election with which I imagine Mr. Harper is thoroughly familiar.
Why is 1958 the precedent? Because it was a minority goverment? That’s simply not right. It is a prime ministerial prerogative to ask for an election at any time, provided the government hasn’t already been defeated on a confidence vote (and that there isn’t another leader able to command the confidence of the House).
Duffy continues, bizarrely:
Constitutionality aside, the political viability of resigning to force an election no other party wants is a very real question. Would there be an electoral backlash at so opportunistic a move?
I don’t know John — was there a backlash when Chretien called an election in 2000, three years into a majority? Was there a backlash when Martin called an election in 2004 before the full sponsorship story came out? He can’t possibly be trying to suggest that Harper would be unique in calling an election to suit his own timing, can he?
Finally, he asks a sensible question:
How does it square with the government’s plan to have regular elections starting in 2009?
That’s the only thing stopping Harper from calling one whenever he feels like it. Fortunately, Dion — strategic genius that he is — has handed the Tories a ‘Call-An-Election-Free’ card in Rodriguez’s private member’s bill. Sixty days after that bill is given royal assent, with a Liberal majority in Quebec, the Bloc back on their heels, and the federal Liberals bickering amongst themselves, Harper calls a press conference.
He says that he is very sorry to have to put the country through another election, but the opposition parties have left him with no choice. The will of Parliament is that Kyoto targets be met, but he is simply not willing to do that sort of damage to the Canadian economy. His deep respect for parliamentary sovereignty leaves him no choice, but to take the question to the people.
good analysis.
Rodriguez & the mini-minds in the liberal back broom closet have made a huge strategic mistake.
I can just imagine the press conference, complete with some graphics showing what needs to be eliminated in the economy to cut the 270+ Mt needed to do Kyoto.
Harper could easily calibrate the debate into “Economic Disaster Deniers” vs “Do what is reasonable.
All the other parties would have to table plans to MEET Kyoto, as per their support for C 288.
Its a perfect storm.
He’s been into the children’s beer and pop corn fund, one would think.
Allan Rock has an even more intereting comment
http://www.macleans.ca/canada/.....4#comments
If you think this manouver will sell, I have a bridge I want to sell you. This, by the way, puts the election call well into summer. Harper: “I have to have an election in July. Give me a majority.”
John Duffy doesn’t know what he’s talking about. A prime minister doesn’t resign in order to call an election. There is no caretaker government in such a situation. A prime minister has the right to advise a dissolution at any time. If the request happened to be improper (such as in 1926 when the House was about to vote on censuring the government and Mackenzie King advised a pre-emptive dissolution), then the Governor-General could refuse. But no resignations take place unless the GG doesn’t follow the PM’s advice, and then the GG would be obligated to appoint a new PM and Ministry. In all but the most exceptional circumstances, in Canada, a PM remains PM until defeated in an election (although other scenarios do exist, and even then the PM has the right to meet the new House and wait to be defeated there). I realize that a lot of people may be unsure about the intricacies of the parts of our constitution that are unwritten, but surely, people in the media and party spokesmen ought to be better informed.
bigcitylib:
How exactly does this manouvre not sell? If he ignores the bill and continues to govern, it’s a coup-d’etat according to the opposition. I think his argument that he had no choice would (and, probably, will) sell just fine.
bigcitylib has been into the kool-aid again.
How does he turn a bill he’s just described as toothless into something that brings his government down? Does he break his promise to “obey” the law?
Also, just do the math. The Bill comes out of the Senate in May. Plan your election two months after than, at least.
The Lib bill will be held up in the Senate. PMSH can table the new Clean Air Act (to be out of committee in a month) assign some money to it (making it a money bill) and call it a vote of confidence.’
If passes, parliament has approved new targets.
Guess it needs to be explained in a way you get the full impact bclib.
The bill needs senate approval before royal assent, something the liberal senators say they won’t rush, particularly in light of Harpers senate reforms that the senate has been holding up for oh almost a year.
That puts the royal assent just before or more likely after the summer recess, starting the clock in September, which puts Harper’s 60 days right on the cusp of a fall election and cooler weather.
At that point Harper tables the report the C-288 requires him to do. In it will be an assessment that shows the economic disaster Kyoto is.
He can paint as bleak a picture as he wants thanks to this bill.
Then he will bring forth measures so unpalitable the opposition will be very reluctant if not outright opposed to. At that point Harper tables a confidence motion to rescind the law as it would be irresponsible for a government to impose such an economic upheaval, but that he will give the opposition the chance to stand on the bill and take their case to Canada to impose the measures or rescind the law and choose a made in Canada solution.
Imagine Dion going into the GTA and campaigning on gas rationing and restrictions on personal vehicle use to a group of soccermoms.
That’ll sell like Reid’s beer and popcorn.