Background. So what of Dryden, Brison, Volpe, and Hall Findlay?

It should first be said that all the hype surrounding the membership recruitment skills of Volpe and “Jimmy the K” were just that: hype. And a ladle-full of manipulative pablum fed to a willing mainstream media that, I suspect, will not be acknowledging this fact any time in the near future.

I have already seen these four candidates referred to as “the also-rans.” This is unkind, and untrue. Together they possess roughly 14.2% of the delegates, about as many as Kennedy currently holds. This means nothing as long as they are unable to sway their delegates to another candidate. But I suspect that they can, since each candidate seems to command a certain loyalty from his (or her) followers. (I experienced this personally during one of the debates when I sat in the small Volpe cheering section, which erupted into vociferous clapping at the conclusion of every syrupy Volpe sound-bite ((I had mischeviously intended to cheer for him myself, but reconsidered upon noticing someone I know in attendance.)). The fact that they will be dropped first during the voting itself will lend momentum to whichever candidate(s) they send their delegates to, perhaps influencing the decisions of the delegates that are cast loose later on in the evening.

Which brings us to which candidates these ones will move to during the evening. Disclaimer: Some candidates in leadership races seem to purposely attempt to ramp up the entertainment value of the evening by moving to other candidates that no one suspected they would. By insofar as some guesses can be made: Brison and especially Volpe will almost certainly go to Ignatieff. Dryden, who seems to stand for nothing other than the defense of those tasks that were assigned to him as a minister by Paul Martin, and Hall Findlay, will likely go to one of the more centre-left candidates. Perhaps Rae if he emerges as the Stop Iggy Candidate (which does appear to be likely) or, if Dryden decides to support a cabinet colleague, Dion.

In sum, their influence should not be underestimated.