Predicting The Duration of the Conservative Minority
January 24, 2006 · By Martin Street
As we saw during the election campaign, the Liberal Party has no problem smearing Stephen Harper and the Conservatives as a northern extension of the Bush administration. For the duration of this minority government, look for the Liberals, the NDP and their big media sympathizers to continue pushing this meme at every possible opportunity, even when the circumstances make such labelling ridiculous.
In a country that has been educated to fear American Republicans (and the Bush administration particularly) this will be their most potent “criticism” of the Conservative agenda. As such, it is in their best interest to try to force an election before the Bush presidency has been concluded, even if the Liberals are still too disarrayed to fight an effective campaign. Arguing that Prime Minister Stephen is too much like President Hillary won’t have the same impact. Expect a no-confidence motion to pass sometime in early 2008.
I think the Conservatives should try and push through as much of their platform as fast as they can. The Liberals won’t dare vote anything down because 1) they’re broke and can’t afford an election, 2) they don’t have a leader, and 3) the Conservatives will be ripping through the books uncovering all sorts of other Liberal corruption.
As well, you can break the notion the NDP is capable of working with anyone if they start voting against everything. If the government falls, Canadians will be upset about going to the polls again so soon and will most likely hold the opposition responsible.
I guess that depends on which agendas are being pushed through. I agree, that the fiscal / health / skills development agendas will be much easier than social issues. And while Canadians are expecting the fiscal changes to go through (very few people get riled up about marginal tax rates), a conservative minority will have an awefully hard time moving on its social agenda. In the past we have seen people hit the streets over peace/war, abortion, same-sex marriage. Stephen Harper realizes this, and I doubt very firmly that he would risk proving Liberal allegations of a “hidden agenda” right off the bat, given that Canadians care deeply and are divided on many social issues.
Bad idea. Don’t forget that 63% of Canadians voted left of centre… any attempt by Harper to show his true colors will simply result in him getting booted back to the other side of the floor. It will have justified all the scare tactics. The Liberals will come back as a majority since they’ll tell the voters they’ll roll back the conservative adgenda that was laid out upon them. Simple as that.
The conservatives only got as far as they did because of the “5″ items of importance to them - ironically the only thing they dared talk about. Don’t forget that a lot of votes the conservatives recieved were from people willing to give them a chance to work on the items they talked about. Anyone who thinks that the average Canadian is willing to let his/her social programs and freedoms roll back a la Americana has been living in Calgary a bit too long.
Either way - Let Stephen Harper have a bit of fun, this was the best he could do with the Liberals at their worse. Next election any talk about Liberal corruption will be mute - just like all the corruption from the Mulroney conservatives.
Stephen Harper lost the moral authority to govern when he abandoned the child care deal which has left Canadian families in actually desperate straights. This juxtaposed to his photo-op as just a regular ‘hockey dad’ — the only real appearance since ‘inauguration day’.
Come next election public won’t be persuaded to vote one way or other. It’s hopeless going forward or backward for that matter. Think about it.