First Election Poll: Dead-Heat

Ipsos has put out the first poll of the election campaign just hours after the Writ was dropped but following the fall of Martin’s Liberal government on Monday night.

A Snapshot Of The Political Landscape Taken In The Hours After The Government Falls Shows A Dead Heat And An Unpredictable Outcome

Toronto, ON, November 29, 2005 - According to a new CanWest News Service/Global News survey conducted by Ipsos Reid throughout the hours following the fall of the government in Ottawa by a successful loss of confidence vote, the federal Liberals (31%, -3 points from a survey conducted November 22-24th, 2005) would be in a dead-heat tie with the Conservative Party (31%, +1 point) in terms of decided vote support if a federal election were held tomorrow. Meanwhile, 18% would vote NDP (+2), and 5% would vote for the Green Party (unchanged).

This is to be expected. Falling minority governments typically drop in the polls, and so not too much hay should be made of that yet. What is significant, though, is that it took weeks into the last campaign for Tories to come nose to nose with the Liberals. This time, they’re starting more or less at the same place. This is a campaign for the Tories to lose.

Crossposted from Civitatensis.ca