High Support for Western Separatism
August 3, 2005 · By Tom Cerber
Via Neale News, the Western Standard (pdf) reports, from a poll they commissioned, 36% support for Western separatism:
42 per cent of Albertans now say they are willing to consider the idea of forming a new nation, independent of Ottawa. In Saskatchewan, 31.9 per cent expressed a willingness. Residents of B.C. and Manitoba were the least likely to say they would consider separation, but significant numbers in both provinces nevertheless expressed sympathy with the separatist cause: 30.8 per cent and 27.5 per cent, respectively. The poll was conducted around Canada Day, between June 29 and July 5, 2005, when sentiment for federation should have been running at its peak. It sampled 1,448 adults and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Remarkably, notes pollster Ellis, the greatest support for separation existed among young people, not the stereotypical embittered Albertan codger. Thirty-seven per cent of those between the ages of 18 and 29 were open to the notion of breaking away from Canada.
“Interestingly enough, in that age group, they haven’t had the major constitutional
or federal touchstones like previous generations,� Ellis says. “Their psyche hasn’t been ingrained by majorconstitutional crises, such as the previous generations.� Thirty- and forty-year-olds witnessed the constitutional crises that were the Charlottetown and Meech
Lake accords, and older groups will remember the NEP.“But with 10 years of
relative constitutional peace, to have high numbers in that [youngest]
generation . . . those youth numbers are surprising,� he adds.
Meanwhile, the baby boom generation (those between the ages of 45 and 64) expressed the lowest support for separation of all the age groups, at 33.7 per cent�??likely because they worry that political instability could disrupt the comfortable lives many have established,
speculates Ellis. “The Gen X and late boomer crowd is more entrepreneurial and less materialistic [than baby boomers] in a lot of ways,� he says. But Andrew Sullivan, vice-president of Ottawa-based EKOS Research Associates, which regularly polls Quebec
for separatist sentiment, also notes that younger voters are typically the least likely to get mobilized. “That age group [18–29] may sound enthusiastic, but they are also the least likely to show up to the polls. In other words, they don’t walk the talk,� he says.
These are amazing numbers if they stick. Ellis is also a careful pollster, so the methodology (Word doc) will be sound.
The Western Standard throws a bit of cool water on the story by quoting Ellis on the “don’t walk the walk” attitudes of youth. Of course youth are like this. They’re radical because they’re young and don’t own property. However, their numbers are close enough to the old people to make these findings significant.
Time will tell whether the numbers for separatism remain constant, or decline, or increase.
Crossposted: Civitatensis.
[...] Crossposted: Thepolitic.com [...]
“If these poll numbers are accurate, and I do believe they are, we could see a situation where hard support for independence in Alberta could possibly sit around 50%, with a significant amount of soft support on top of that. These numbers dwarf the previous highs numbers of the early ’80s when polls showed support for separation in Alberta sitting at around 25% at its peak.
While I would think the federal and provincial government might be wise to look at these numbers and be worried, I suspect the reaction from the fed’s will be dismissive, and the provincial government will act like the problem doesn’t exist.
While we appear to be on the verge of yet another monumental shift in the Alberta political scene, all will be lost if the separatist movement in Alberta fails to coalesce behind one force and does not take measures to broaden their appeal for all Albertans.”
http://therebelalbertan.blogsp.....ng-in.html
Well said J. FranKlin.
Many things must be done before Abertans can be free.
Like a child who has graduated and become economically self-sufficient, Albertans must decide how they want to live in their own house before cutting the lawfull ties to the Canadian Crown.
Albertans must make sure they have security before independence.
The mistakes which are destroying Canada must be recognized to prevent their repetition.
Greater democracy, accountability, liberty, should be the watchwords to focus on for the future.
Government of the people, by the people, for the people.
Ellis is also a careful pollster, so the methodology (Word doc) will be sound. Are you kidding me?
That document provided question and result; it did not provide any information about methodology, or statistical context, or anything else a real poll or real pollster would include. Ellis is not a careful pollster. There are a lot of problems with this poll, its methodology and the aim of the WS here, which we explore in a bit more detail over at Cerberus.
And read the poll and the bloody question more carefully. The question was: How much do you agree with the following statement: “Western Canadians should begin to explore the idea of forming their own countryâ€??. Not, “Do you support Western independence?” Big big difference. The conclusion drawn in the article and the conservative blogosphere - that 35% of Westerners and 43% of Albertans want out - are a disingenuous interpretation of their own push poll.
~TB
Not to mention a few serious flaws in the methodology itself, but Ellis works for the polling company owned by two of the co-founders of the Western Standard.
But it would only be a conflict of interest if they were Liberals, right?
Don’t leave your brains at the door with this poll.
Instead, ask a few questions. You’ll find surprising answers.
What was the name of the “Queen” when the “Alberta Act” and the “Saskatchewan Act” were drafted in 1905?
Section 9 of Canada’s Constitution Act, 1867 states: “The Executive Government and Authority of and over Canada is hereby declared to continue and be vested in the Queen”.
How does “Rupert’s Land and the North-western Territory” sound?
TB: Please explain the difference between “forming their own country” and “Western independence,” since that difference is determinative for you.
Tom: You are completely missing the point. The difference is not between “forming their own country” and “Western independence”, but between wanting to form their own country and wanting “explore the idea” of it.
TB: Then you should write a little more clearly.
Also, I checked the website that you linked. All the criticism provided there consists more of innuendo and possible conflict of interest, not of actual evidence or criticism of statistical methodology..
Tom,
There’s a fairly serious problem with the framing of the questions in that poll. Each question begins with a leading clause, the wording of which will significantly shade the responses given. Since there’s only 5 questions, those leading statements are problematic, as there is an implied subtext to them.
It bears the classic trademarks of a questionnaire which sets out to prove what its authors already “know”. Also, the notion “consider exploring the idea” is so ambiguous that it will generate a lot of “yes” responses, even though the respondent would not support separation itself. (e.g. I might consider the concept - but that doesn’t mean I support the concept)
I’d be reluctant to draw anything from that survey beyond the entertainment value of the assorted quizzes on okcupid.com.
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