Assessing the state of the separatist movement in Alberta
July 2, 2005 · By Jon Koch
Peter Rempel’s assessment of the Separation Party of Alberta has prompted me to do some prognostication of my own. His views on the viability of the secessionist movement, and the palatability of voting for an unambiguous separatist party, are being shared by more and more and more and more Albertans with each passing year.
While Albertans are reacting with disgust over the most recent shenanigans on Parliament Hill, the question has to be asked if separatism is truly becoming an alternative for the mainstream, or just a last resort for a few thousand conservative gripers.
Rempel points out that last election the SPA managed to acquire only 0.5 per cent (one per cent according to Elections Alberta) of the total vote, 4680 votes in total. This seemingly lackluster result caused many outside the movement, and to a certain degree some inside, to write off the party and the separatist cause.
However, looking a little deeper at the results, one shouldn’t be so quick to write off the Separation Party of Alberta. There are a number of points to keep in mind when assessing the SPA’s performance in the 2004 Alberta election:
* Prior to the November vote, the SPA had been a registered political party for less than 6 months (as of May, 2004).
* Without a wealthy benefactor to bankroll the party and in the face of indifference from the media, the party still managed to find 12 confirmed candidates to contest the 2004 election:
Rocky Mountain House- Bruce Hutton - Leader (505 votes/ 4.9% of vote) 5th overall
Airdrie-Chestermere- Bob Lefurgey (394/ 3.3%) 7
Calgary-Fort- Leo Ollenberger (212/ 2.7%) 6
Drumheller-Stettler - Dave Carnegie (465/ 4.4%) 5
Highwood - Cory Morgan (299/ 2.8%) 6
Little Bow- Grant Shaw (432/ 4.8%) 5
Livingston-Macleod- Jim Walker (339/ 3.4%) 6
Olds-Three Hills-Didsbury- Brian Vasseur (746/ 6.1%) 4
Red Deer South- Judy Milne (261/ 2.1%) 5
Strathcona- Roberta McDonald (297/ 2.1%) 7
Strathmore-Brooks - Jay Kolody (559/ 6.1%) 4
Calgary-Shaw - Daniel Doherty (171/ 1.6%) 6
The Social Credit Party in contrast has been in existence since 1935 (with a brief hiatus in the late ’80s- early ’90s) and scrambled to find 42 candidates.
Furthermore, in the constituencies in which the SPA fielded candidates they averaged 3.2 per cent of the overall vote, including two 4th place performances in Strathmore-Brooks and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills. The SPA also found themselves up against numerous firewall/ right wing parties that helped to split the vote in many rural constituencies.
If one bases their assessment of the separatist cause purely on the performance of the party’s dozen candidates last election, then you might come to the conclusion that the Separation Party of Alberta is going nowhere. However, one need only look at the sudden rise of the Reform Party in the late ’80s/ early ’90s to show that the SPA, and their major competition the Alberta Alliance, may be poised to make significant gains in the next provincial election.
The Reform Party of Canada was faced with the challenge of contesting it’s first election only 13 months after the party was formed. The party fielded candidates in 72 of 282 constituencies Canada-wide in the 1988 federal election, receiving 2.09% of the total vote. This is deceptive however, as the party enjoyed it’s best showings in Alberta, scoring a number of strong second place finishes:
Yellowhead- Preston Manning- Leader (11,207 votes/28% of vote) 2nd overall
Athabasca- Betty Lebsack (1,781/ 5.45%) 4
Beaver River- Deborah C. Grey (4,158/ 13.4%) 4
Calgary Centre- John A. Hamilton (6,662/ 12.4%) 3
Calgary North- Murray Smith (9,889/ 16.2%) 2
Calgary Northeast- Stewart Larsen (6,155/ 13%) 4
Calgary Southeast- Gerry Maloney (6,648/ 12.8%) 3
Calgary Southwest- Janet Jessop (8,316/ 13.4%) 2
Calgary West- Steve Harper (9,074/ 16.6%) 2
Crowfoot- Jack Ramsey (11,392/ 32%) 2
Edmonton East- Elaine Sim (1,728/ 4.4%) 4
Edmonton North- A. Erich Bier (2,630/ 5.53%) 4
Edmonton Northwest- Paul C. Sherstan (2,956/ 7.6%) 4
Edmonton Southeast- Wes McLeod (5,192/ 10.7%) 4
Edmonton Southwest- Chuck Cripps (5,646/ 10.5%) 4
Edmonton Strathcona- Doug Main (12,024/ 22.2%) 3
Elk Island- Dennis Tindall (8,131/ 20.14%) 3
Lethbridge- Phil Connolly (3,116/ 6.8%) 4
Macleod- Ken Copithorne (10,498/ 31.2%) 2
Medicine Hat- Larry Samcoe (4,582/ 10.75%) 4
Peace River- Daniel H. Fletcher (6,525/ 15.2%) 3
Red Deer- Michael Roth (9,560/ 21%) 2
St. Albert- Ken Allred (5,955/ 13.9%) 4
Vegreville- Sam Herman (3,705/ 9.8%) 3
Wetaskiwin- Jim Henderson (7,418/ 18.5%) 2
Wild Rose- Dal Brown (13,895/ 33.4%) 2
The Reform Party of 1988 in many ways more closely resembles the Alberta Alliance going in to their first election than the SPA. Both Reform and the AA were able to secure a handful of name candidates, strong financial backing and media interest, and as a result scored a number of strong showings in rural areas. With no other competition coming from the right (with the exception of a handful of Western Independence candidates running as independents), Reform collected 15.4% of the vote with a full slate of candidates in the province. In comparison, when you combine the right wing vote in the 2004 Alberta election (Alliance, SPA, Alberta Party and the Social Credit Party), nearly 11% of Albertans decided they wanted a right-wing alternative to a tired, unresponsive Conservative government, just like in 1988. These numbers are also nearly identical to the 11.76% of the vote the separatist Western Canada Concept Party of Alberta took in the 1982 provincial election.
Both the Alliance and SPA should also remember that the Reform Party was able to elect Deborah Grey in a by-election less than a year after their first election (something the Alliance have already done). Grey, who had finished 4th with only 13.4% of the vote the 1988 election, walked away with the Beaver River by-election, taking 49% of the votes cast. The Reform Party followed up Grey’s election with a breakthrough in the 1993 federal election, fielding candidates in 207 of 295 ridings, winning 52 seats and 18.69 per cent of the vote.
Fortunately no one had written off the Reform Party, who had significant funding and a high profile leader from the start. The Alberta Alliance, with the departure of Randy Thorsteinsen, have perhaps lost their major benefactor, but have gone a long way towards broadening their appeal to Albertans with the strong performance of Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Paul Hinman in the Legislature. Like the Reform Party in 1988, the Alliance stand poised to make a major breakthrough in the next election.
But what about the SPA?
Any rise in the Alliance’s fortunes is good news for the SPA. Should the Alliance be able to attract a handful of Conservative MLA’s or other high profile figures to the party, then this will hopefully prompt the dissolution one or both of the firewall competitors (Alberta Party/ Socreds) on the right. While the AP/ Socred numbers combined from 2004 account for only two per cent of the vote provincially, eliminating these parties will lessen the competition for votes and organizers that these fringe groups may have responsible for in the past. It will also further clarify for the voters that the SPA are the only political party standing for Albertan independence.
The SPA should also be encouraged about their showing against fringe parties in the last election. On a per-riding basis , the SPA captured an average of 390 votes/riding with only 12 candidates while the historic and highly recognizable Social Credit Party managed an average of 258 votes/ riding with 42 candidates. The SPA were also not far behind the Greens and the Alberta Party in this regard, with the Alberta Party scoring strong showings in two of the four ridings in which they fielded candidates.
A number of constituencies in rural Alberta were also left without a secessionist alternative to vote for. Of those constituencies who had the alternative, many SPA candidates scored in the 4-6% range, all without the benefit any kind of favorable media coverage and significant campaign resources. Therefore it stands to reason that only once the SPA is able to finance a high profile province-wide campaign with a full slate of candidates, complimented by a reasonable amount of coverage in the media, will we be given a true indication of the true popularity of the separatist movement in Alberta.
While the future for Alberta firsters short term seems to lie either with the Alliance, or a Ted Morton-led Progressive Conservative Party, any further inflammation of tensions between Alberta and Ottawa, such as the implementation of punitive or discriminatory measures against the energy industry, could drive these people away from firewalling and right in to the separatist camp.
Albertans have proven in the past they will vote for a separatist party, and with the registration of the SPA occurring within a year of the party’s initial formation, the Alberta separatist movement is progressing at much more accelerated pace than the secessionist movement in Quebec during its infancy.
While it seems all that is needed to ignite the flames of Albertan independence is a spark, it remains to be seen whether the SPA’s inability to attract candidates and votes last election is a true reflection of how Albertans truly feel about separation.
Crossposted to Dispatches from the Western Alien Nation
Liberal Tory same old story. I joined the Reform in 1990 when they were on their first blue book and I agreed with almost all of their policies. Why? The Liberals and the’Torys’ would never have stolen any policy because at their core these policies were all about devolution of power to the provinces,referendums, and the reformation of federal politics to the pre-income tax original Canada formula. (I still have that blue book)
Voting Reform meant ‘Never again having to say you’re Tory.’
Alberta needs a Rene Leveque. Maybe Senator Elect in Waiting Ted Morton, a man who doesn’t seem to be corruptable by an obvious interest in the status quo, could fill the bill?
The fragmented nature of ‘the right’ is caused not by a divergence of goals, but by the lack of a leader who can articulate the desire welling in the People of Alberta, for a society which permits them to actualize their interests.
I haven’t joined the SPA. I think of myself as someone who wants to evict Ottawa from my society more than to be separate. When Ottawa is evicted this absentee ‘Landlord’ will be irrelevant, and separation will be a fait accompli’.(excuse my french)
A few quick comments. Ted Morton is no longer a senator-in-waiting, having become the MLA for Foothills-Rockyview in the last proincial election. I would agree with your assessment of him being Alberta’s big hope for reform. Dinnig/ Norris/ Oberg/ Mar are all cut from the same cloth, and are all beholden to the same interests that ensure Alberta will have a limp wristed response to any kind of Federal intrusion.
As far as the fragmented nature of the right goes, much of this is due not to a divergence of goals, but dueling egos and battles between aspiring elites. This whole idea that political change in Alberta occurs suddenly and from out of nowhere has prevented the non-PC right from congealing around one political force or leader. There has been no significant effort to “Unite The Right” in Alberta since the original Alberta Alliance (WCC/ Socred/ heritage party coalition) Party collapsed in the late ’80s, or thereabouts. All three firewall parties (Alberta Party/ Alberta Alliance /Social Credit) in one form or another owe their existence to the collapse of the original Alberta Alliance Party. While it is not essential they get together, it would certainly be a bonus.
Ted Morton’s potential ascension to the PC (or Alliance) leadership will hopefully provide the impetus for these fringe groups to put egos aside and work together.
As with Quebec, we must ask the question - how much of that ’separatist’ vote has more to do with a sense of discontent with the current status-quo in confederation?
(Call it a ’soft-separatist’ vote - using the separatist line as a political club)
Also, as of last election, a lot of people had begun to question Ralph Klein’s continued tenure. A lot of people may well have voted SPA (or Alberta Alliance) simply to vote “against the PCs” without giving their vote to either the Liberals or the NDP.
Separatist movements have rippled through our landscape on and off for decades now, but they seldom have the spark that gets more than a few rallying around them. Unlike Quebec, where a francophone unity sentiment can be played, Alberta separatists have yet to find - and express - that compelling vision which would attract more than a few of the rumbling masses.
J. Franklin
“Ted Morton is no longer a senator-in-waiting, having become the MLA for Foothills-Rockyview in the last proincial election.”
Has there never been a former Premiere or MLA appointed to the senate? Has a sitting elected politian never resigned to run for another office or in another party or to fill an appointed office? The fact that Mr. Morton is senator elect still stands. He was elected to this office by all Albertans not just Foothills-Rockyview. Perhaps Mr. Morton is an agent of influence with the true conservatives in the legislature. What was the name of the gentleman who sat at Brian Mulroney’s right hand and left taking enough MPs to instantly start his own very successful federal pary? A very charismatic fellow, Lucien Bouchard.
The Bloc was an instant success because they already had enough seats for official party status and plenty of attention from the press.
Duelling egos of aspiring elites? Neither William Aberhart nor Ernest Manning were egotistic elitists. They were christians with principal. Radical? You bet. These were Men of the People. Alberta has plenty of their type still.
Men like these won very handily without the help of statisticians.
The Father of a sovereign Alberta will have principals and the backbone to articulate the policies which will throw those of the progressives into stark contrast. He will probably begin with the firewall and finish this beginning by printing our own currency.
Revolutions are a sudden thing. If the current ‘right’ is splintered by egocentric elitists why unite them? Do we want a province or even a country governed by such as these?
OTOH the implementation of Kyoto will surely be ‘compelling’ enough. A greater percentage of Albertans owe their bread and butter to oil sector/oil sector support than Quebecers have an interest in maintaining their francophone ghetto.
Quebecois have a negative birthrate and Ottawa is their sugardaddy. The population of Alberta is booming and Ottawa is an abusive tyrannt to us.
Im tired of hearing about Ted Morton, the guy is a wannabe P.C. Party hack, he is not exactly friendly, he would not give people on the street the time of day, and I used to think he was great until the two times I met him.
The fact is, despite his “goals” for Alberta, he decided to run for a party that does not want him, or like him. He turned his back on a party that needed a little elbow grease but was ready to follow him, and hand him the keys. Rod Love isn’t going to let him become leader of the P.C. Party, he is going to manage Dinnings campaign. Dinning is Ralphs hand picked replacement.
He sacraficed principal for an easy election victory, the guy doesn’t have the intestinal fortitude to be a real leader. Leaders earn victory, like Paul Hinman did in the face of overwhelming odds.
Cardston-Taber-Warner was considered one of, if not the safest P.C. seat in Alberta going into the last election, remember that, were not talking about an Edmonton swing riding.
Ted Morton may seem like a good idea now, but trust me on this, he won’t change a thing in Alberta.
A P.C. Party led by Morton, will still be a dysfunctional 100 year old party of the left to centre elite. And you can’t teach a party that decended from the Liberal-Conservative Party new tricks.
Seperate, don’t seperate… I think its fair to say that Albertans as a whole want inclusion in the decisions of this country. One of the first places that can occur is in the electoral system. Democracy only works if everyone is equal, and that doesn’t exist in this nation. When my vote is worth 1/4th of a person in PEI, or 1/2 of a persons in Saskatchewan, I take umberage.
The system must be fair, and it isn’t.
I’m a decendant of the French Settlers, and of Empire Loyalist, and I’m certain this system was not meant to evolve into an executive branch controlled by an elitest oligrachical few… that’s what they were trying to get rid of in 1867, not support.
Where does that leave Alberta. “Absolute power corrupts absolutely”. It is unlikely that there will ever be any appetite in Ottawa to make significant changes to the electoral system. Anyone put into Ottawa from the west will have to many IOU’s to the east to make change.
We are screwed. Either we start to call the shots, or we fold and accept our lot.