Stephen Harper for Premier
May 17, 2005 · By H. Cameron
Lately I’ve been wondering if there is a chance that Harper is considering a possible run for the leadership of the Alberta Progressive Conservatives. Considering the current political environment in Canada, there appears to be little chance that Harper will ever become Prime Minister. And if he does manage to become PM, it would likely be leading a weak minority government. On the other hand, if he were to resign and return to Alberta, he would most likely be met with open arms from provincial conservatives from across the province.
Crazy you say? Consider this scenario; Harper forces an election in the next 6 months, anything less than a huge minority (low probability) or a slim majority (extremely low probability) will be considered a failure. His critics will say, “If you can’t win against this corrupt and immoral government, you’ll never win� and they will proceed to undermine his leadership and his credibility to the point he either resigns or is forced out. You see, an election for Harper is a lose lose scenario, as he will never be able to secure a victory sufficient enough to satisfy the critics.
In the next few months, the campaign to replace the stale premiership of Alberta will be heating up. Harper could use his extensive network of supporters inside the province to rally support amongst the current PC membership. You can also guarantee that most of the twenty-six conservative MPs in the province will endorse his candidacy; thereby providing another layer of potential supporters – remember, federal conservatives are not always provincial conservatives; hence, the Alberta Alliance.
With the leadership vote relying on a one-member one-vote system, it’s only a matter of whose got the biggest and most effective organization on the group; so Harper’s team would find little opposition amongst the current list of leadership contenders. Harper would also have a huge celebrity factor, which means no single candidate would have his national profile. And if the next leadership election if fought over Alberta’s place in confederation – who better to articulate that vision than Harper?
Also remember, that a large portion of the federal Conservative party membership resides in Alberta, and if the Conservatives are denied government (and I think this is a distinct possibility), that membership could easily be persuaded that Harper as premier is the only way to effect change upon the system.
Doesn’t seem so far fetched, does it?
That day might be sooner than you indicate. The knives will come out if they don’t win the confidence motion on Thursday.
And then the knife wielders will bow down to welcome Bernard Lord as the new savior of the federal Conservatives.
Leaving Harper to implement the Alberta Agenda as Premier of Alberta, with Dinning as Finance Minister and Morton as Justice Minister.
I don’t think Harper would make a run for premier. Dinning will be premier.
Lord as next leader of federal conservatives though, I think will happen but AFTER the next federal election.
Didn’t Harper retreat to provincial politics before?
Aaron, answer me this, how is moving from a political party that doesn’t seem to have future in Canada (the federal Conservatives) to the premiership of the richest and fastest growing province in Canada (maybe the world?) a retreat?
Harper will need a job after life with the Con.s. He has no private sector experience and has not held a real job. So of course he will turn to provincial politics. In the same boat as Stockwell Day. No real world skills therefore stay in government.
Didn’t Harper retreat to provincial politics before?
No.
That would be beau-ti-ful.
harper left federal politics and surfaced as president of the national citizen’s coalition. he has not been involved in provincial politics beyond advocacy. while his principled stand on issues will continue to have costs and political consequences, it would benefit conservatives and conservatism in bananada to put away the knives and settle in for the long haul. perhaps all we can count on is that history will be kind to the cause. the problem is not with conservatism or with the leadership of the party, but with bananada and its predictably inept and gullible voters. the alternative, which looks more and more attractive, is to try to pull the plug ourselves. one of these days, westerners will come to realize that the only way they can gain real representation is to strike out on their own.
Peter Kent would likely make a more attractive candidate for Toronto. I listened to his interview on CBC Radio and they didn’t treat him instinctively with suspicion. He’s one of their (CBC) own and bilingual, too. Listen to part 2: http://www.cbc.ca/insite/AS_IT.....5/5/2.html Also let’s not get too down on BS’s departure. Peter Kent will more than make up for her and will actually be able to speak without sounding vapid.
seems too much like taking your ball and going home. You can’t make changes on a federal level by hiding in your province. Also, a ‘quitter’ stigma is beginning to follow Harper around. Eventually, people are going to look elsewhere.
I think Bernard Lord would be an excellent candidate.
It has nothing to do with going home. It’s just the recognition that the Canadian regime is grounded, not on a system of checks and balances and political trusteeship – a la the US Constitution – but of a soft use of Machiavellian power.
Once recognized, you figure out your best strategy of either 1) defending yourself or 2) dominating the other side.
Ontario, with its mouthpiece the Globe and Mail, understands how to wield, ahem, “soft power” for the purpose of #2.
The West and other “regions” (as well as Quebec right now) can’t wield sufficient power to beat Ontario at that game.
So strategically it makes more sense to play #1.
Ideally, you want a strong presence playing game #1 at both the federal and provincial levels.
But if Harper loses tomorrow and eventually gets pushed, out, then serving as Alberta’s premier would be a wonderful thing for him to do.
Quebec? Tom, that doesn’t make sense. Quebec isn’t trying to beat Ontario? The bloc doesn’t run a single candidate outside of their own borders. Their strategy is clearly not designed at taking power in Ottawa.
What about King Ralf? Do you think he would endorse Harper?
[...] be waiting to see this headline on Canada day:”Stephen Harper resigns to campaign for Alberta Progressive Leadership role”Hey, he retreated from the Hill before, didn’t [...]