Chantal Hebert’s Crystal Ball, and mine

Chantal Hebert, a solid commentator on national politics even on her worst days, speculates on the behavior of a minority Conservative government following the next election:

Necessity would dictate that such a government steer a course closer to the centre than its natural instincts might otherwise dictate. Only at that price would it find some essential allies across the floor of the Commons. And, in spite of Liberal assertions to the contrary, it would have no interest in putting itself at the beck and call of the Bloc Québécois. That would be the kiss of death of its hopes to secure a majority the next time around.

Instead, a minority Conservative government could be expected to make it hard for the Liberals to defeat it, by putting forward popular middle-of-the road policies. Having much to prove to many Canadians, a Harper government would have a strong incentive in making a fragmented Parliament work.

To be honest, I’d prefer a minority Conservative government to a majority after the next election. A Conservative majority would go too far, too fast. They’d follow the Bill Bennett/Ralph Klein/Mike Harris formula: Go hard at the start, ease off at the end. And, I’m sorry, but that’s just a shitty hap-hazard way to run a government. A Conservative minority government, on the other hand, would provide Harper with an incentive to moderation on most issues while staking out solid conservative ground on other issues. And knowing Harper, those will be fiscal issues. Canadians need a maturation period to get used to a Conservative government without being locked in for the full mandate.

Let’s predict: A minority Conservative government does lots of middle-of-the-road things for its first year in office, the sorts of things that make up the essence of being Canadian (ugh). Then, at the end of the year, it introduces sweeping tax cuts for the middle and lower classes and especially aimed at families. Would the Liberals defeat such a Conservative budget? Sure, on the basis of the tax cuts or something else we provoke them with in the budget. We’d then have an election campaign caused by the defeat of a tax-cutting budget.

Its been decades since Canadians have gone to the polls on the basis of their views on taxs. They have been provoked during election campaigns to think about debt reduction, health care, racism, the Charter gay marriage, blah blah blah. But they have never confronted a stark choice between a party which wishes to cut taxes and a party which forced an election to prevent it. And I don’t mean a philosophical blab-fest about the size of government with David Frum chiming in; I mean asking Canadians, “Do you want this money back to spend on your kids, or not?” Such an election would be a landmark of Canadian political history. It would reorientate Canadians away from the mushy diversionary crap that the Liberal Party has placated Canadians with for the past thirteen years. I don’t doubt for a moment that the Conservatives would win an election framed in such terms. And that victory wouldn’t be a one or two-fer like the Conservatives have always won throughout Canadian history. It would put partisan conflict in Canada on a new place, one favourable to Conservatives.

I haven’t even talked about the internal wars that would plague the Liberal Party if Martin actually lost the upcoming election. But the key is to win this time. Everything depends upon it. If we lose, we’re probably screwed for the foreseeable future. Gomery will fade away. But if we win, I can’t believe that a long period of Conservative rule isn’t in the wings.

This is the campaign that will matter. This is the one to make a contribution or volunteer on. This is the one to turn out at the all candidates forum and shout “You suck!” at the Librano candidate. Watch out Stephen Owen, here I come. Paul Martin doesn’t like you, and neither do I.

Crossposted to Rempelia Prime