The Idol Scale – Who Will Be American Idol – Bush or Kerry ?

As I have written here and elsewhere, the most pressing problem with politics in (North) America relate to the fact that there is no suitable vehicle to deliver suitable information to the public masses that choose our leaders. This situation has evolved naturally from the marriage of mass marketing and American-style democracy.

But there’s a new hybrid of democracy emerging right now that seems to involve an electorate without the cynicism we have seen in our political systems. I refer to the family of “Idol” television shows on FOX and CTV.

The popularity of this type of democracy versus the political kind gives us an opportunity for forging a new metric in order to track our democratic progress. I call it the Idol scale. It indicates, roughly, the importance to the average person of the “Idol” winner, versus the person who will lead their government.

According to Google figures that I found, the two systems have the participation rates as follows:

AMERICA:

American Idol: 24 M Voters
2000 American Presidential Election: 101 M Voters

CANADA:

Canadian Idol:3.6M Voters
2004 Canadian Federal Election: 13.5 M Voters

This gives us an “Idol Scale” of roughly 25%.

I say roughly, because there are some important structural differences in these votes:

The Idol election has the advantage that you can legally vote several times, and that you can vote from your home. (This explains the Canadian idol participation rate of %110, versus %60 for the general election.)

So, comparing the two systems head-t-head isn’t exactly isn’t fair, but for the purposes of examining trends it’s a good benchmark to begin with.

Aside from the eifferences in the voting process, let’s compare some other differences between Idol voting and governmental voting.

Pre-Vote Campaign
Idol Elections
Moderated sing-offs

Runoff elections,
leading to 2 candidates

Major press coverage

Voters see candidate perform live,
make a decision based on performance.

Governmental Elections
Moderated debates

Party Conventions,
Runoff elections at
leading to 2 major candidates

Major press coverage

Some voters see candidates debate live,
as well as misleading television ads,
character smears done by advocacy groups,
contradictory analysis from the press,
make a decision based on performance.

Post-Vote Term of Office
Idol Elections
A few months of high
media presence

Winner’s music provides
entertainment

No promises, no
rhetoric, no policies

No discernable effect
on our lives
otherwise

Governmental Elections
Four years or so of high
media presence

Winner’s gaffes provide
entertainment from
nightly talk-show hosts

Angry public reactions to
broken promises, rhetoric,
failed policies

No discernable effect
on our lives
otherwise

While my comparison here may seem flippant at first glance, it actually makes sense if one takes the approach that any government’s central presence in our lives is its communication through media. And, in fact, for many people government only affects our lives in this way.

The Panetta Institute found that only one-fourth of college students discuss political issues three or four times each week. One-third stated that the government played no role in their lives, double the 17% of adults responding similarly. And these were college students, not just young people in general.

Politics has already become another form of entertainment in America, with the emphasis on personalities, the drama of elections and election strategy, scandals and gaffes.

As this trend continues, we should keep our eyes on the Idol Scale. An increasing Idol scale means that the political “show” is slipping in the ratings, and that changes are required to make it more popular.

What changes ? We might see younger and better-looking candidates, less discussion of policy, more emphasis on personality and entertainment value, the elimination of all campaign promises, and more turnover in the cast of characters associated with an administration to keep things fresh. There may even be changes in the system to allow home-based or internet-based voting.

If these changes come to pass, we might see the reversal in direction of the Idol factor and an increase in popularity of political democracy.

—-

As for real change – the re-emergence of an effective political system that has popular support and governs for the well being of all the people – it can’t happen until…

1. There is a rebirth of the notion that government policies have a real and positive effect on our lives.
2. A new medium of consesus-building and debate emerges to submit and propose alerternatives.
3. The current media for political discussion retreats back into traditional forms of entertainment.

These three prerequisites could arise spontaneously and organically, or even (somewhat) through some kind of mass-media based introspection of all of our ills. But it seems more likely that the current system of communication will only fail catastrophically. We may be in the early stages of that process already.

Watch the Idol scale !