Early thoughts on Election 2004

What looked like a Conservative victory in the making turned into another Liberal government, albeit a minority and an unexpected one. Most political pundits agree that Liberal scare tactics played the largest role in bringing most swing voters into the Liberal fold, but it has to be said that Stephen Harper played into their hands.

The Liberals promised that the Conservatives would bring in a programme of social conservatism as they rearmed and expanded the Canadian military and send it abroad on errands for the US. This was compounded by Harper’s arrogant talk of a Conservative majority, as he refused to even discuss the possibility of a Conservative minority government, and the electorate probably grew frightened of a Conservative parliamentary majority which would push all this legislation through. They voted strategically against a majority government that in all reality was never on the cards, and the minority Conservative government that could have been was stillborn as a result.

When Harper’s back-benchers spoke out on their pro-life and traditional-marriage views, Harper’s response was that his MPs were entitled to their opinions and would not be muzzled, which was a great message for proponents of free speech and good, active democracy but evidently not what the electorate wanted to hear. Perhaps Canadians have gotten so used to dictatorial PMs that they are actually afraid of a democratic one.

The most disappointing fact about this election is the lack of a viable option for conservatives in Canada. The CPC has only become palatable to the electorate by swinging left of centre, far further left than the Alliance/Reform parties that most CPC members come from. Talk of social-conservative issues such as opposition to abortion and gay marriage is played down, with the leadership keen to state that the Party as a whole will not propose such legislation (although a private member’s bill would not be squashed), and the fiscal policy is barely right of the Liberals – big government, taxes (cut but still very substantial), socialised medicine, state-run industry and so forth. The Liberals are left of the CPC, and the NDP further left still.

This election may also spell bad news for Confederation. Quebec has overwhelmingly picked a sovereigntist party in 2004 and should the Quebecois reject Charest in favour of the Parti Quebecois in the next provincial election, it will be clear that Quebec is once again pushing away from Anglophone Canada.

At the opposite end of the country, the message sent to Albertans by Ontario and Quebec is clear: we are happy to take your money, but we’ll never take your politics or your politicians. Albertan separatists may well grow bolder and more numerous now that the East has made it clear they would still prefer a corrupt, greedy and visionless federal party to any alternative, no matter how palatable on paper, proposed by the West.

The question before Paul Martin now is where to go next. Although so far he has vowed not to form a coalition, the message of Joe Clark is clear – you cannot govern as though your minority were a majority. Many expected that the Liberals and the NDP would co-operate, but unfortunately for them their combined seats total only 154, one short of a majority. This will be lessened by the Speaker, which in all probability will be a Liberal and will leave Martin still shy of a majority even if he can get the single independent MP on his side. The Conservatives or BQ are unlikely to allow one of their own to be Speaker, giving a hung Parliament and swinging the balance of power away from them, and the NDP are already low on numbers and unlikely to hand power to a potential BQ-Conservative alliance.

If Martin attempts to deal with the Conservatives, he effectively ridicules his own demonisation of the Conservative Party and Harper, and rules out that tactic for use in the next election which is almost certainly not very far away. Dealing with the BQ would be even worse, and would alienate a significant portion of Anglophone voters, especially in vote-rich Ontario, who have contempt for the sovereigntists.